Stephen Fleming doesn't need a crystal ball to see problems ahead on next month's tour of South Africa.
The New Zealand skipper has watched from afar this month as Australia has twice crushed South Africa in their own backyard, and is expecting little to change when the third test starts at the Wanderers tomorrow.
Speaking from Napier after the final test against the West Indies was mercifully abandoned yesterday, Fleming conceded that Australia's success in the Republic was unlikely to do his squad any favours.
New Zealand head to South Africa next week to play three tests at Centurion, Cape Town and Johannesburg.
"South Africa are a very difficult proposition at the best of times but are possibly going to be coming off a 3-0 beating from Australia - which will make our job even tougher," he said.
"They'll be getting more desperate by the day. The public will be on their back, and if they don't win this last test against Australia, we'll have to be very aware of a backlash."
Australia drubbed South Africa by seven wickets in the opening test at Newlands, and repeated the dose at Kingsmead this week, winning by 112 runs following a six-wicket bag from Shane Warne.
Fleming professed himself relatively satisfied with this month's 2-0 result over the West Indies, but warned the upcoming tour would present a much more difficult hurdle for his team, and would possibly put the West Indies result in perspective.
New Zealand scrambled to an unconvincing win in the first test against the West Indies after a comedy of errors, and although marching to a much improved 10-wicket result in the second, they still looked below par.
"All areas need to keep improving," Fleming said. "We weren't as polished as we wanted to be in either test. We had opportunities to nail both matches. We didn't take them and it became more of a struggle than it should have been.
"Even in the test we won by 10 wickets, we should have done much better in the first innings.
"I'm not sure if we're where we want to be. We've made improvements, sure, but we're going to have to make a lot more in the coming weeks."
On the flipside, he was pleased that New Zealand would at least be heading to South Africa with an apparently fully-fit squad after key all-rounder Jacob Oram was selected to take a full part.
Fleming was no doubt mindful of the injury woes that beset New Zealand's previous test tour of South Africa, in 2000, when David Trist's "Invalids" were taken apart at Bloemfontein and Port Elizabeth.
And New Zealand's most recent visit to South Africa, the one-day tour last September, ended in wailing and much gnashing of teeth following problems with the fitness of Oram.
"Often when we've toured we've been substandard because of absences through injury and the need to have new players in the side coming up to speed," he said.
"But this is a form side."
Cricket: Fleming says Black Caps heading into backlash
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