KEY POINTS:
England are in a mess. They might care to deny this, but then old lags nabbed with a swag bag full of notes emerging from a bank which has just been robbed are not always inclined to say: "It's a fair cop, guv."
Consider the evidence. England have lost their last two test series, one at home, one away and won only two out of eight since their epic Ashes victory of 2005.
They have two captains, one each for the test and one-day teams, which everybody involved agrees is a defective system, except in this case.
Their party to New Zealand contains two wicketkeepers, neither of whom have played a test. The England selectors approach wicketkeepers as if they were buses - another one will be along in a minute.
The perversity of this is that most of the chosen candidates couldn't catch a bus. Moreover, the team's catching as a whole has been sub-standard.
Out of the squad - but haunting their every move - remains the talismanic allrounder Andrew Flintoff, who is in rehabilitation after a fourth operation on his left ankle. It is not clear when he will return as a bowler, but his presence is always there.
Virtually on the eve of departure for New Zealand, England sacked the man who had been chairman of selectors for 11 years, David Graveney.
This was dressed up as part of the changes recommended in a wide-sweeping review, established after the humiliating loss of the Ashes, but there was only one valid interpretation.
Graveney was felt not to be up to the job. Geoff Miller, the former test spinner, his replacement and a colleague on the panel for seven years, was.
To cap it all, the entire cricketing establishment is obsessed with regaining the Ashes, a noble aspiration which makes it difficult to concentrate on the job, and series, in hand.
None of which means that England will fail to win in New Zealand. From afar, it looks as though the Black Caps are not too clever either.
For all their shortcomings, the tourists will begin as favourites in the tests. And who would have thought that the one-day team would manage to put a smile on the face of English cricket? They also have an affable, painstaking coach in Peter Moores.
Against most predictions and common sense, the limited-over boys won their last two series, against India in England, and most unexpectedly, against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka, while the corresponding test rubbers were being lost. The two forms of the game must be scrutinised differently. New Zealand obviously throw most of their eggs into the one-day basket.
There was some perplexity in England when the tour itinerary was revealed. England test matches in Hamilton and Napier? Good heavens, old boy, what the devil's going on?
But T20s and one-dayers in the main centres as well. Ah, that's what's going on. Small crowds in Seddon Park and McLean Park will not look as wretched as elsewhere.
England have improved as a one-day team under the stewardship of Paul Collingwood, who was made captain after Michael Vaughan resigned last May.
It was the bowlers who won it for England in Sri Lanka. They swiftly learned what needed to be done after a drubbing in the opening match, and crucially were able to do it. The two do not always go together.
But England are still a work in progress and their batting lacks tactical nous and direction. Of course, should Kevin Pietersen fire, then anything is possible.
The Kiwis punch above their weight, they probably recognise their roles more closely than England and would be disappointed not to win.
In the three-match test series, England have to win for Vaughan to keep his job.
He might seem unassailable and still noticeably has the backing of the dressing room.
But even men who brought the Ashes back cannot keep losing series, and certainly not - with respect - to the likes of New Zealand.
The combination of England's bowling and New Zealand's batting should be enough for the tourists to win. England have learned lately to bowl as a team within a team.
There is evidence that Stephen Harmison is returning to something like potency and Ryan Sidebottom has been the find of many a year, a testimony to the merit of long apprenticeships.
No Shane Bond makes a big difference. Chris Martin, piqued at some straightforwardly correct observations made by England's recalled opening batsman, Andrew Strauss, has grown into an authentic test bowler. But that does not equate, by some distance, to being the leader of an attack.
Had Bond been alongside, Martin would be better, New Zealand would be almost (but not quite) formidable. England will be as disappointed to lose the tests as the Kiwis would be to lose the one-dayers.
Neither event should occur.
Stephen Brenkley is cricket correspondent for The Independent
