Kiwis’ failure to deliver in second innings of tests must be addressed before Headingley, Andrew Alderson writes.
Since their last win in England in 1999, New Zealand have lost eight tests and drawn one.
An awkward fact means the odds are stacked against them winning the second test at Leeds - a loss would also see them drop to the No7 ranking.
Of the top-eight ranked teams playing in England this century, New Zealand have the second lowest second innings average of 204.22.
They sit less than one run in front of the worst candidate, Pakistan, on 203.45.
A mitigating factor is that New Zealand have started each of their tests no later than June 5. Since 2001, Pakistan have at least had the luxury of playing in July and August, months when pitches favour batting more.
In a credit to Sri Lanka's batting application, they have the highest second innings average of 264.82 but, like New Zealand, have always been forced into the earlier scheduling slot. Last summer they won their series against England 1-0.
Australia are second with an average of 256.83, followed by India's 247.71, South Africa's 247.1, England's 236.01 and the West Indies' 220.50. The average among the top-eight ranked countries is 237.20.
It is not always the top order letting New Zealand down. In five of their nine examples they reached 150 with four wickets or less down. Not ideal, but at least shaping to compete. The worst examples came at Lord's in 2013 (25 for five) and this week (61 for five). A number of hypotheses could be causing the second innings malaise.
Since 2008, players arriving from the Indian Premier League have played a minimum of warm-up matches against the English Duke ball. They might have practised with the balls in the IPL, but nothing substitutes for the real thing in first-class fixtures. Apportioning blame to the players over-simplifies the situation. On New Zealand national contracts they can't be expected to turn down the opportunity to set themselves up financially for life, despite the correlation with a failure to produce results.
The IPL failure theory can be countered by Kane Williamson (132) and Trent Boult (five for 85) earning places on the Lord's honours board, Matt Henry (match figures of six for 199) making a sound debut and Corey Anderson top-scoring in the second innings with 67.
Another post-IPL example of success came last year in the first test against the West Indies in Kingston. New Zealand scored 508, eventually winning by 186 runs.
Struggling in England during May is hardly a new phenomenon for New Zealand sides. In seven tests which have started during the month - 1965, 2004, 2008 (2), 2013 (2), 2015 - they have lost six and drawn one.
However, captain Brendon McCullum knows another loss will temporarily tarnish their record of going unbeaten in six test series. He's requested "no kneejerk reaction" and, given what he's achieved in his captaincy tenure, he's surely earned the right to play the leniency card.
Pressure will now be applied to front with New Zealand's first test victory in England this century. Last week McCullum was asked whether this was the strongest side New Zealand had taken on to Lord's.
"I don't want to be disrespectful to those who have gone before.
"This is the best team I've been part of but we're not the finished product.
"I want the guys to play with a free spirit, to earn the right to be instinctive and aggressive and, if we're faced with the same situation [as 2013] I'd hope we would fare better."
Headingley provides the chance for redemption.
Average runs in the second innings for top eight sides this century in England
• *Sri Lanka 264.82
• Australia 256.83
• India 247.71
• South Africa 247.10
• England 236.01
• West Indies 220.50
• *New Zealand 204.22
• Pakistan 203.45
• Overall average 237.20
*Have only played tests in May and June
OPINION: A prurient attitude to drug use does New Zealand no favours.