Full coverage of the match on nzherald.co.nz from 12pm today
KEY POINTS:
One game will decide whether New Zealand return home tomorrow a beaten, trophyless outfit or with grins as wide as Hobart's Derwent River.
They could see the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy they prize dearly and won so emphatically last summer disappearing into Cricket Australia's bulging cabinet when the rain curtailed the second ODI in Sydney last Sunday and threw them a lifeline.
There is a spring in the New Zealanders' step since arriving in Hobart. Australia are 1-0 up but New Zealand can end a poor tour by retaining the trophy in a winner-takes-all decider at Bellerive Oval today.
Consider their position; they were pounded by Dale Steyn, the game's newest genuine quick in South Africa; knocked about by Brett Lee, Nathan Bracken and Shaun Tait in the Twenty20 international in Perth last week; and had their bowling ripped apart by Adam Gilchrist before a peerless Ricky Ponting century got Australia comfortably home in Adelaide.
Then they watched Sydney rain on Australia's parade when New Zealand were a parlous 30 for three. No wonder they can scarcely believe their good fortune. The question is now whether they can take advantage of that.
The pitch is expected to be good, short on pace and perhaps offering help to the spinners later in the day. So you can understand captain Daniel Vettori fancying batting first if he gets a say in it today.
Vettori has proved successful at coin-tossing in his 16 ODIs as captain. He's won 12 of the tosses and yesterday put up a theory for batting first, even though New Zealand are generally a superior side when pursuing a target than setting one.
"I understand we are a better chasing side, but if we're going to continue to improve as a one-day team, the majority of time you've got to look to bat first, put a total on the board and defend it," he said yesterday.
"Every situation is a little bit different, but when you come to Australia, the majority of times you look to bat first."
Which puts the onus on the top order to do the job against a tough, sharp Australian bowling attack. Consider that Lou Vincent is in a form ditch, Brendon McCullum is still finding his feet, but confident and with a fine 96 at Adelaide to lean on; and Jamie How is still working out ways to keep the board ticking over and bowling first would seem the pragmatic option.
But Vettori is revealing a steely streak in his early days as national captain. The idea of taking a course of action for negative reasons - ie, bowling first on a good pitch because of a worry over the opposing attack - holds no appeal.
Asked if he felt the Tait throwing row and the Gilchrist brouhaha would stiffen Australian resolve to put the pesky Kiwis in their place, Vettori said he can't imagine the cricket being any more hardfought than it already is.
Ponting yesterday gave the "actions speak louder than words" line in putting the off-field shenanigans to bed. He suspected Australia had inflicted some psychological cuts at Sydney, if not on the team collective then certainly the top order.
The absence of Gilchrist - Michael Clarke has been promoted to open with Matthew Hayden - might have had the New Zealand opening bowlers doing the hokey cokey this week.
But New Zealand, who have won two of their seven ODIs in Hobart, will need to play out of their skins against an Australian side who have looked a couple of clicks superior in all respects thus far.
NEW ZEALAND (LIKELY) Daniel Vettori (c), Lou Vincent, Brendon McCullum, Jamie How, Scott Styris, Ross Taylor, Mathew Sinclair, Jacob Oram, Kyle Mills, Jeetan Patel, Chris Martin.
AUSTRALIA Ricky Ponting (c), Matthew Hayden, Michael Clarke, Michael Hussey, Andrew Symonds, Brad Haddin, James Hopes, Brett Lee, Brad Hogg, Nathan Bracken, Shaun Tait, Mitchell Johnson (one to be omitted).
