South Africa's Kagiso Rabada celebrates a wicket against the Black Caps. Photo / Photosport
South Africa's Kagiso Rabada celebrates a wicket against the Black Caps. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
New Zealand and South Africa enter this test series each thinking they can win and, by doing so, break into new frontiers.
The Black Caps are unbeaten in nine home series; a remarkable record. On the other hand, the Proteas have never lost a series to their opponents inthe test format. Either team has the potential to be disappointed but, given the bizarre nature of playing just two matches, there's a high probability this could end up 1-1.
There's plenty to unpack.
New Zealand are without both Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson in the batting ranks for the first time since January 2008, meaning thousands of test runs are absent from the Black Caps batting armoury. Trent Boult is missing on the bowling front for the first test, but returns for the second fixture.
Both these issues are problematic against South African batting and bowling units that know how to play on the green pitches they are likely to find at Hagley Oval.
The Black Caps will be without Kane Williamson. Photo / Photosport
I see no real standout in the Proteas' batting line-up and New Zealand's bowling unit should still be confident. Skipper Dean Elgar possesses stickability, Aiden Markram is promising and Temba Bavuma has character; but none are world-beaters. They will miss Keegan Petersen, who excelled in the series win over India, after he contracted Covid-19 before leaving home.
In the bowling ranks, the world-class stand-out is Kagiso Rabada. His 233 wickets at an average of 22.43 in 50 tests means New Zealand must think carefully about their approach.
Do they attack to pressure him? He has a combative and fiery streak that could take him off his game. Or do they resist any temptation, but remain acutely aware of where their off stump is at all times? I think the latter strategy is the right one, albeit one which requires enormous patience, skill and discipline.
If Rabada is negated and not the top wicket-taker in this series, the Black Caps will have gone a long way towards being victorious.
Lungi Ngidi could also prosper on seaming Hagley Oval pitches and 21-year-old Marco Jansen also looks a fine talent as he embarks on his test journey. The latter is tall and bowls an unusually full length for someone his height.
Will Young of the Black Caps. Photo / Photosport
What will the Black Caps do with their side? Will Young has become a fine opener and must remain there. He and Tom Latham can form a strong partnership over several years. Devon Conway and Henry Nicholls will fill the Williamson-Taylor void at three and four, with Daryl Mitchell slotting in at five.
I like the game Mitchell brings to test cricket. He's strong square of the wicket but he is going to have to show skill in leaving the ball. If Colin de Grandhomme returns, he should be encouraged to play his natural game from number six.
Selective aggression rather than recklessness is the recipe for him. Swift runs from him in one of the four innings could set up a game for New Zealand. For me, Tom Blundell would round out the batting at seven. That line-up should be superior to the Proteas.
So, let's look forward to a fascinating contest on two sporting pitches. I'm predicting New Zealand to post an historic series victory that is well overdue.
