Cricket: Where the World Test Championship between the Black Caps and India will be won

Team philosophies and balance

One fascination of the final is that the two best Test sides in the world embrace profoundly contrasting styles. New Zealand's success is built upon their mastery of Test cricket's boring bits; India play with altogether more enterprise and flair. In many ways, both sides adopt the spirit of their captains, Kane Williamson and Virat Kohli: two modern masters, just in very different ways.

There is also a marked difference in the balance of the two attacks. India's XI will include two spinners and three quicks; New Zealand are weighing up between a five-man seam attack and selecting Ajaz Patel as the lone spinner.

Yet there is a strong case that New Zealand should double down on their seam attack, which is still a varied attack, even if not in the traditional way. New Zealand's template against India last year showed how effective their seam attack can be even after the new ball has lost its shine - their seamers averaged a remarkable 13.8 after the 30th over in the series - as England could also attest.

Playing the moving ball

One of the traits of the Dukes ball is that it swings appreciably more than the Kookaburra. Indeed, New Zealand's victory over England was underpinned by lavish swing movement. Yet, for all the excellence of New Zealand's quick bowlers, India have become adept at playing the swinging ball: since 2016, India's top seven average 37.4 against the swinging ball, the best average of any nation. Not that New Zealand are particularly susceptible to swing either: their top seven average 35.3 against swing in this time.

Virat Kohli of India and Kane Williamson of the Black Caps. Photo / Photosport

Just as was the case during the 4-1 defeat in England in 2018, India's weakness against the moving ball has tended to be against seam rather than swing. Since 2016, India's top seven average a comparatively modest 32 against deliveries that seam more than 0.5 degrees. New Zealand lead the way in this time, averaging 36. Seam determining the fate of the inaugural World Test Championship - just as it did New Zealand's 2-0 victory at home to India last year - might offer New Zealand their best chance.

Match-ups

The variety in both bowling attacks may allow them to exploit batsmen's specific weaknesses. Indian batsmen are generally outstanding against spin, but even if New Zealand select an all-seam attack it will be a contrasting one. Curiously, all of India's top six fare better against right-armers than left-armers; in some cases the differences are pronounced. Openers Shubman Gill and Rohi Sharma average 18.9 and 34.1 against right-arm quicks; Gill has scored 94 runs against left-armers without being dismissed, while Sharma averages 135 against left-armers. Perhaps New Zealand could be minded to whisk Trent Boult out of the attack early. Kyle Jamieson, being 6ft 8in, offers an essential point of difference - Cheteshwar Pujara particularly struggles against bowlers of such height, and was twice dismissed by Jamieson last year.

India, with both a left-arm spinner and off spinner, will try and manipulate the bowling to turn the ball away from the bat as much as possible. This could see Ashwin enter the attack early, against New Zealand's two left-handed openers. India will aim to bowl Jadeja to Ross Taylor, whose average of 62 against off spin falls to 39 against left-arm orthodox spin.

Tom Latham batting against India in March 2020.

Batting deep

The excellence of both new ball attacks means that early wickets are probable. The final, then, could be determined by which side extracts more runs from their lower-middle order. In Ravindra Jadeja and Ravichandran Ashwin, their spin twins, India have a formidable number seven and eight, but what follows has an altogether less reassuring feel: Mohammed Shami, who will bat at nine, averages just 11.

If New Zealand select Colin de Grandhomme to balance the side at number seven, backed up by Kyle Jamieson at eight, they will feel they can match the output of Jadeja and Ashwin. New Zealand's bottom three have been a far more reliable source of runs than India's. In the Test series in New Zealand last year, New Zealand added 123 for the last three wickets in the first Test, and 82 in the second, with Jamieson hitting crucial 40s on both occasions. But in their four innings, India never added more than 35 for their last three wickets.

Conditions

When the World Test Championship was conceived, administrators emphatically did not envisage it being played at the Ageas Bowl, an unloved ground off the motorway. And yet while Lord's would have provided a better spectacle, the pitch at the Ageas Bowl is perhaps not far off ideal for the final: a wicket that offers opportunity for batsmen, seamers and spinners alike. To this end, it might actually make sense for both teams to adopt divergent approaches to assembling their sides: India to select two specialist spinners, and New Zealand none.

But the weather's recent turn seems more advantageous to New Zealand. The combination of overcast skies, and the near-certainty of play being disrupted by showers, will encourage New Zealand to pick four specialist seamers - and help their quartet to extract movement in the air and off the pitch - and could lessen the threat of India's spinners. Yet India's multifarious excellence is such that they are still eminently capable of winning a Test match defined by pace bowling.