Tomorrow's penultimate round of the national one-day competition is likely to decide the four semifinalists for February 6.
Unless Central Districts can get up over leaders Canterbury at Pukekura Park to give themselves a sliver of hope, the top four seem assured, given that Wellington, as has become the norm in all three formats over the last couple of seasons, are again well off the pace.
The competition, sandwiched between the first half of the Plunket Shield and the HRV Cup T20, and the remainder of the shield programme, should be a full double round robin.
Instead it is faintly ridiculous that teams play some of the others twice, the rest just once.
The key game is at Colin Maiden Park tomorrow, where Otago, who have been in good form, play Auckland, who already have one title in the cupboard and are a decent chance again in the 50-over version.
Auckland bring back big left armer Michael Bates in place of Kyle Mills, who is on New Zealand duty, in the only change from the washout at New Plymouth on Thursday.
When the teams met in Oamaru last Sunday, Otago prevailed by two wickets. Auckland's batting let them down that day and Aaron Redmond and Derek de Boorder got the job done for Otago. "I think the guys realise that performance was below the standard we've set for ourselves and they'll be very keen to make amends on Sunday," Auckland coach Paul Strang said.
The tie between Otago and Northern Districts in Whangarei on Thursday helped Auckland's cause too, as it kept the top four teams close.
There is a significant advantage in finishing in the top two. The format has a major and minor semifinal arrangement. The top two teams get a second bite at making the final.
Otago are getting decent contributions from a range of players this season, and coach Mike Hesson paid special tribute to the work of wicketkeeper Derek de Boorder.
The former Auckland player headed south for the 2007-08 season and is in strong form. He tops the one-day batting averages with 132 runs and once out from four innings.
"This year he's been great," Hesson said. "He's keeping as well as anyone in the country and in all three forms of the game he's been a rock."
Otago's had three wins and a tie and only one loss so far. They fancy their chances of making up for a disappointing T20.
"It's hard to put a finger on why those two weeks (HRV Cup) didn't go well. We've got a well-balanced side, a lot of allrounders and that suits the shorter formats of the game," Hesson said.
Northern Districts, fresh from winning the Waikato Sports Team of the Year award this week, visit bottom-placed Wellington, and include newcomer Brook Hatwell in their 12. He replaces Kane Williamson, who is with the New Zealand team this weekend.
In the other game, CD host leaders Canterbury in New Plymouth. Canterbury hold a one-point edge over Otago courtesy of their third bonus point of the competition from their drubbing of Wellington on Thursday.
Points after six rounds: Canterbury 17, Otago 16, Auckland 14, ND 14, CD 8, Wellington 6.
One-day competition
National one-day competition, seventh round, all start 11am tomorrow
Auckland v Otago, Colin Maiden Park
Auckland: Gareth Hopkins (c), Tim McIntosh, Lou Vincent, Anaru Kitchen, Greg Todd, Colin Munro, Colin de Grandhomme, Daryl Tuffey, Andre Adams, Roneel Hira, Michael Bates, Chris Martin.
Otago: Craig Cumming (c), Aaron Redmond, Michael Bracewell, Neil Broom, Darren Stevens, Darren Broom, Derek de Boorder, Ian Butler, Nick Beard, Craig Smith, Warren McSkimming, Neil Wagner.
Wellington v Northern Districts, Basin Reserve
Wellington: Grant Elliott (c), Stewart Rhodes, Jesse Ryder, Cam Merchant, Neal Parlane, James Franklin, Harry Boam, Joe Austin-Smellie, Jeetan Patel, Dewayne Bowden, Marc Calkin, Mark Gillespie, Andy McKay.???
ND: James Marshall (c), Brad Wilson, BJ Watling, Brook Hatwell, Anton Devcich, Peter McGlashan, Joey Yovich, Bradley Scott, Trent Boult, Brent Arnel, Graeme Aldridge, Jason Donnelly.
Central Districts v Canterbury, New Plymouth
CD: Kruger van Wyk (c), George Worker, Peter Ingram, Mathew Sinclair, Brad Patton, Tim Weston, Doug Bracewell, Kieran Noema-Barnett, Tarun Nethula, Adam Milne, Michael Mason, Mitchell McClenaghan.
Canterbury: Peter Fulton (c), Rob Nicol, Michael Papps, Shanan Stewart, Dean Brownlie, Reece Young, Andrew Ellis, Mitchell Claydon, Carl Frauenstein, Ryan McCone, Richard Sherlock.
Cricket: Auckland have incentive to finish in top two
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