Commonwealth Games: Are you in or out?

The prospect of October's Delhi Commonwealth Games going ahead without disruption remains hotly debated. Andrew Alderson looks at why countries and athletes might opt out - or might compete.

Many countries and athletes will wait until the last minute before deciding whether to compete at October's Commonwealth Games in Delhi.

Security is the major factor but perhaps not the only consideration as organisers try to reinvigorate an event that has lost some of its lustre in recent years.

It's a tricky holding pattern. It's difficult to make a call on whether to compete with so many unknown variables.

What will be the advice of independent security agencies? How reliable is government advice? Is the investment worth it for athletes, media and sponsors? Will any of the bigger nations such as England, Australia or Canada opt out, substantially weakening the fields? Will it affect long-term trade deals? What is the incentive in winning a gold medal for some of the star athletes who can earn a better living peaking elsewhere?

Kiwi Michael Hooper, chief executive of the Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF), admits bomb attacks are commonplace in India these days but none can be directly correlated with potential disruption to Delhi 2010.

"I've made it clear to [NZOC secretary-general] Barry Maister there is no information to suggest any linkage between the Bangalore bombing and the security situation in Delhi," he says. "Every threat or even innuendo is investigated thoroughly.

"Our position remains as it was after the [February] Pune bombing. We're comfortable security planning is on track. We don't say that just because the government says it; we have advisers who are closely involved and visit regularly. They're due back next month.

"I said to Barry: 'Ask your athletes who have been to the hockey, shooting, bowls or boxing test events whether it has been a safe environment.' All those events were relatively high profile, were held in games venues and went off without incident."

None of the 71 nations expected to attend have pulled out, nor are any likely to until closer to the event. But there have been whispers.

Most officials were appeased by last month's update but a couple more terrorist attacks could tip the balance, especially if one of the key players withdraws.

Mike Stanley, New Zealand Olympic Committee president, says they will bear that in mind, but will make an independent decision regardless.

"Naturally we're interested in what nations with well-resourced teams do, especially those who have invested a lot assessing security," he says. "We are also confident in the information our government and the CGF can provide with its independent advisers.

"There will be no coercion but, in saying that, I hope athletes give us the opportunity to inform them thoroughly. Our conclusions shouldn't necessarily be taken from what has happened in other sports like cricket, either. The Games have support at the highest levels of the Indian government."

Anyone who has travelled to India knows it is a cacophony of chaos by New Zealand standards. Sight, sound, smell, taste and touch assume sensory overload in a manic world of 1.2 billion people.

For those with open minds, it is an experience to be embraced wholeheartedly. But does that mean the country is fit to host major sporting events?

One argument labels the four-yearly event an anachronism, a last bastion of the British Empire - tactfully dubbed the Commonwealth Games since 1978. The event is seen as preventing supposedly sovereign nations letting go of The Mother Country's hand.

Proponents claim the Games are a chance to maintain sporting and cultural relations under the feel-good banner of 'humanity, equality, destiny'.

Whatever your stance, the Games look set to proceed despite the series of security threats. Just when an uneasy peace seemed to be emerging, there was another bombing, this time outside the stadium in Bangalore last Sunday morning (NZT) ahead of an Indian Premier League cricket match.

Once again Commonwealth Games organisers were faced with scrutiny.

The irony is India is one of the world's more peace-loving nations, especially as Hinduism (the country's major religion) embraces reincarnation and karma. The downside of such pacifist intentions is that it can leave the country vulnerable to terrorist activity by virtue of what is a fast-dissipating naivete.

Cynics might suggest the importance of bilateral relations with India will influence a country's decision on whether to attend.

New Zealand, for instance, has gone to great lengths in the past few years to establish better terms with India via a free-trade agreement. Those efforts have stepped up since approvals were secured in February to go ahead with negotiations.

India is estimated to be New Zealand's 13th largest export market and numbers have tripled over the last decade. Around $620 million was banked last year selling the likes of coal, timber and wool and it's understood more sheep meat sales are in the offing.

Stanley says claims such a pragmatic factor will come into the reckoning around whether they support the Games are a stretch.

"We're quite clear those things have to be ring-fenced out of these decisions. You can't say because we're going to get a good trade deal we'll send a team into a risky situation.

"I don't think our government would ever think about those sorts of trade-offs. These are our best young people in sport and we don't play games with their lives. The issue will be decided entirely on whether it is a safe environment."

Hooper also denies feeling any pressure from higher levels of government.

"I interact regularly with the deputy high commissioners of Britain, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. We talk on general issues and security is always high on the agenda but the message is the same, 'we're on track'."

The Commonwealth Games, though, will suffer if larger nations or high-profile athletes decide to stay at home.

Security aside, questions also abound about whether the Games evoke the same passion as they did in previous generations.

Track and field is an example.

With prize money of $9.3 million on offer for 32 events over 14 rounds of the new Diamond League, which finishes in late August, there is little incentive for those from traditional strongholds like the Caribbean and Africa to peak for Delhi in October.

Who wants a Commonwealth gold medal when you can set your family up for life in the parish of Trelawny or on the plains of the Serengeti?

The Commonwealth Games have provided some captivating moments in the past - John Walker unsuccessfully chasing Tanzanian Filbert Bayi down the home straight in the world record-breaking 1500 metres of Christchurch 1974 or the 'miracle mile' of Vancouver 1954 when Roger Bannister pipped John Landy for the gold, the first time two men had broken four minutes in the same race - but it's hard to see many more in the future.

The incentive for athletes to peak or even attend is not the same as in some Commonwealth-centric sports like lawn bowls, rugby sevens or netball.

Hooper says they're reliant on the goodwill of high-profile names like Jamaica's Usain Bolt venturing to Delhi.

"We'd love to have the Commonwealth's best athletes there but it's their personal decision. Traditionally we have received a high level of elite participation."

Stanley agrees. "I think anyone who has grown up in a Commonwealth nation still sees the Games as an important sports event to represent their country with pride. There are only so many of these multi-sport events you can participate in over the course of your life."