Sir Bob Jones: He who sets the agenda will win

Sir Bob Jones. Photo / Michael Bradley

After all the hype, the conjecture and debate, the Tua-Cameron battle of words has its denouement in the ring. Both men, with six months intense training under their belts, will be in superb shape and I suspect we are in for a thriller.

On paper it's no contest. David Tua has fought and defeated some of the world's best heavyweights, nearly always by a knockout thanks to his devastating punching power.

Shane Cameron on the other hand has emerged in exciting battles, winning all but one and often prevailing only by sheer gritty determination, but, significantly, when compared with Tua, against no-names. So on paper it's a mismatch.

But what makes the clash fascinating is that Cameron will not be Tua's opponent as much as will ring rust, age and history, in particular the old boxing adage that they never come back. There's a belief frequently expressed to me that Tua will win because sooner or later he's bound to land a bomb on Cameron.

Boxing is never that simple.

First, Cameron is a very tough and determined individual who has shown often enough that he can take a punch.

Second, to actually land a big punch, specifically Tua's much vaunted left hook, is not an easy thing to do, more so when one's opponent is alert to its threat and guards against it.

Cameron does that naturally with left hooks and his more than two dozen bouts have revealed a vulnerability only to left jabs and straight rights from long armed, rangy opponents.

Tua has hand speed which despite his lack of height enables him to succeed with the all-important left jabs. But, other than that, his height disadvantage reduces his repertoire to hooks, which to land, requires him to fight up close.

So how does Tua win? He must force the pace from the outset, closing the distance via rapid left jabs and endeavour to trap his man on the ropes and in a vulnerable position to land the left hook.

How does Cameron win? He must maintain distance, best achieved not by running away but by a constant flow of stiff left jabs, keeping his man at bay while holding his right hand high in defensive mode.

Even at his best Tua had a tendency to lapse into defensive inactivity in the face of left jabs.

So who wins?

Angelo Dundee, the famed trainer of Muhammad Ali, Sugar Ray Leonard, and many other lesser-known champions, once taught me a valuable lesson. Over dinner he explained that his lifelong study of adversarial, competitive activity, be it sport, politics, litigation or commerce, had taught him a great truth.

That was, he said, that to prevail, a competitor must set the agenda and be the boss. He must ensure his opponent is always reacting to his initiatives and not allow him space or time to present his own.

Barristers know that, with their time-proven strategy of never asking a witness a question to which they don't already know the answer. Successful politicians know that, so they ensure in an election campaign that it is their agenda and not their opponents which dominates debate. So too in commerce and all sport.

So the winner of this fight will be the man setting the agenda, being the boss and keeping his opponent in defensive mode.

Cameron has always done that, so too Tua up until the Lennox Lewis fight, after which he appeared to become a little gun-shy and reactive in his approach.

No outcome for this contest will surprise me, but if forced to make a prediction I will go for history and the ravages of Father Time to prevail.