KEY POINTS:
It's about time some scrutiny was applied to what has been the breathless reporting of the proposed boxing showdown between David Tua and Shane Cameron.
No official sponsors have been named but you'd think Fairfax Sunday newspapers had been employed as the promoter's PR agency, such has been their unquestioning, cheerleading promotion of the fight.
The key issue is money. The boxers have been promised $500,000 each. The budget will be at least $500,000 more and while ticket sales, merchandising and sponsorship will cover some of it, the promoters want the night to be funded substantially by a pay-per-view TV deal with Sky.
It's been suggested up to 50,000 of Sky's 750,000 subscribers will pay $40 to watch the fight, therefore grossing $2 million. Sky will take a decent slice off the top of that but the question is this: are there really 50,000 households in New Zealand prepared to pay over and above the normal Sky subscription just for this fight?
Pay-per-view is a concept which has just not caught on in New Zealand. There has been some international boxing and other fight sports but I understand the take-up has been sometimes in the hundreds and certainly never in the tens of thousands. The sports fan, already paying upwards of $70 a month for the Sky sub, has shown a marked reluctance to fork out even more for one-off events.
Sky's audiences per channel are generally small anyway. For instance, Roger Federer's big fightback against Thomas Berdych, in prime time last Sunday night, attracted just under 3 per cent of the population, around 110,000 viewers.
That's a great number for a niche channel but it represents only around 30,000 households.
So there's a high-quality sports event, on the biggest viewing night of the week, featuring one of the most famous sportspeople on the planet on a Sky channel which is already paid for - and it attracts barely 30,000 Sky decoders.
So to get 50,000 Sky subscribers to fork out $40 to watch a couple of local heavyweight plodders is, to say the least, going to be quite a challenge.
I did a bit of very low-level market research last weekend among a group of young males, serious sports fans all aged around 30 with steady jobs, making above average incomes and with Sky already installed.
When I asked if they'd buy this fight, they were unanimously adamant they wouldn't, although they'd consider going to a bar to see it. I have a feeling that's a prevalent line of thinking.
The big problem with the hyperbole being perpetrated by Fairfax is that this is a local contest with no off-shore appeal. It's a sports event of moderate proportions in a very small economy. Quite simply, it's an event not worth a million dollars.
Heaven forbid, some of the best tennis players in the world come to Auckland each January to share less than that and the sponsor gets a week's worth of free-to-air TV.
The idea of the fight is a good one. But it must be kept in perspective.
Cameron might be in the world's top 10 heavyweight contenders but only in the WBO rankings. He's not mentioned by the IBF, WBC or WBA. Tua hasn't fought in nearly two years.
So it's not a big deal anywhere but in New Zealand and this market is just not big enough to support a million dollar boxing contest, especially in an environment where corporate sponsorship has almost completely dried up.
If this bout goes ahead, somebody is going to lose money on it. I doubt it will happen, unless the fighters' price drops.
