Read more: Tony Bellew - Anthony Joshua will 'eat' Joseph Parker
In truth, Parker's best hope for victory is a stoppage because, given the nature of the crowd and the hype surrounding this world title unification fight, it will be difficult for Parker to convince the three judges to give him the decision.
Parallels closer to Parker's Auckland home can be seen in stablemate Jeff Horn's latest two fights. In July in front of more than 50,000 people at Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium, welterweight Horn beat the 11-time world champion Manny Pacquiao by a hotly-contested decision.
In the 10th round, Horn, his face a mask of bruises and blood, was warned by the referee to "show me something" such was the punishment he was receiving, but he did enough over the final two rounds to win. Two judges gave it to Horn by two rounds, while one, Waleska Roldan of New York, scored it 117-111 to Horn, an extraordinary verdict given the close nature of the fight.
An Australian journalist who was ringside at the fight told me he scored it 115-113 to Pacquiao, and Horn was a beneficiary of more friendly scoring at the Brisbane Convention Centre against Gary Corcoran last Wednesday.
Most observers at ringside had Horn down by as many as three rounds as the fight went to the middle stages; the former Brisbane schoolteacher won by TKO in the 11th after Corcoran's corner threw in the towel – a cut over his left eye left him unable to see the blows coming – but one judge scored every round for Horn, while the two others gave Corcoran one.
There was no doubt that Horn, who is immensely popular in Australia and recently was crowned Queensland sportsperson of the year, deserved to win the fight as he was the dominant man in the second half of it, but it appeared closer at the time of stoppage than the judges suggested, and there were notes of anxiety in the voices of the crowd of 6,000 present.
None of which will surprise professional boxing aficianados, but it might give scale to the challenge facing Parker. Andy Ruiz said on his arrival in Auckland late last year than he would have to beat Parker by two clear rounds in order to have any chance of a decision (he lost, rightly in my opinion, by majority decision and later admitted he wasn't busy enough at the end) and the look of relief on Parker's face in Manchester in September was obvious when he got another majority decision (and another right one in my view) against Hughie Fury.
He believed he would need a stoppage to be assured of a victory, but the champion tends to get the benefit of any doubt and given Joshua has two world titles to Parker's one, that same theory will probably apply.
Joshua is immensely powerful and has the ability to hurt Parker, as he does any opponent he faces. But he has weaknesses – his straight up-and-down approach, limited footwork and tendency to "gas" near the end of fights.
Perhaps his biggest is his "glass" jaw. It will be a target for Parker, and, should he achieve success the New Zealander will see his own popularity hit the stratosphere – here and much farther abroad.
