By PETER JESSUP
David Tua will walk a fine line in his next bout, against the well-ranked and accomplished Fres Oquendo in a month.
If he wins, he will be back in the mid-top-10, and at 29 he is young enough for another go at the world heavyweight championship. If he loses, it will virtually be all over.
The bout with Oquendo comes as a result of two convenient circumstances.
Both boxers are signed with promoter America Presents and broadcaster Showtime, and Tua's heavyweight knockout record of 19s against Puerto Rican John Ruiz gives Oquendo an opportunity to overtake Ruiz, who was Puerto Rican fighter of the year in 2001, in the eyes of his countrymen.
Oquendo had good victories over contenders Cliff Ettienne, Obed Sullivan and David Izon, and believes he deserves Ruiz's national title.
There was an important development yesterday when the venue was changed from Puerto Rico, which would have been extremely hostile for the South Aucklander.
A local promoter was promising a 15,000-seat stadium sellout, but he failed to produce the cash and America Presents and the fighters signed to shift to the Mountain Air Racetrack and Gaming Resort near Pittsburgh, West Virginia.
The undercard is still being settled, but former world bantamweight Wayne McCulloch will be on it, and presumably other America Presents fighters, among whom are former heavyweight contender Ray Mercer, trying to make a comeback at 40, and two world contenders, African welterweight Ben Tackie and Cuban lightweight Joel Casamayor.
The company itself has had financial troubles because of the failure of Tua and others paid US$1 million sign-on fees to deliver the goods.
Among the results, former manager Dan Goosen has gone after legal disputes with former partner Matt Tinley, and Goosen's brother Joe is no longer Tua's trainer.
Tua's manager, Kevin Barry, who has always trained alongside, now calls the shots and the pair feel there is little more others can offer.
It is a simple equation: Tua has one of the most powerful punches in the world but lately has proved only that he can take a punch.
"He has to get closer. If he doesn't hit them he can't hurt them."
Barry admits this is "of career importance. It's win at all costs."
Lose, and Tua will be consigned to the punching bag on Friday Night Fights or to working as sparring partner for others.
He has no lingering problem with his left wrist after ligament and tendon strain forced him to cancel an encounter with a Las Vegas stumblebum intended only as a keep-fit job.
On Tuesday he knocked out a boxer of similar standing, sparring partner Brian La Sparta, with the left.
Barry has him working on combinations that offer something other than the knockout left.
"He has to have learned from the Lewis and Byrd fights. He has to cut off the ring, close the distance and deliver."
Tua will again face a fighter with a height and reach advantage.
Oquendo is no mug. His father, Fundador, was a star of the Puerto Rican amateur team in the late 60s and early 70s, his elder brother is former US middleweight Golden Gloves champion Hector Morales, and Oquendo himself was a college football quarterback in Chicago.
He had an amateur record of 98-6, was the 1993 Golden Gloves champion and lost a narrow and controversial decision to Nate Jones for the 1996 Atlanta Olympic heavyweight spot for the US.
He turned pro after that fight and amassed a no-loss record that set up a fight with the man considered the next real chance, Ettienne, and gained respect after knocking the "Black Rhino" out in round eight.
Oquendo won the North American Boxing Federation title from Sullivan (who had a round-one KO loss to Tua in June 1999) with an 11th-round knockout. Last December, he beat David Izon (who had a round-12 KO loss to Tua in December 1996) with a third-round knockout.
He has a big jab, moves constantly to change angles, as did Tua's two significant conquerors, Lennox Lewis and Chris Byrd.
It is a risky fight for both boxers, as shown by the fact that Las Vegas casinos, which invariably issue odds immediately a fight is "made," had still to set fixed prices yesterday.
Boxing: Oquendo bout will be make-or-break for Tua
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