The indicators are grim but New Zealand are confident they can secure an Olympic spot with their last chance in Stratford tomorrow.
The world No7 Black Sticks must beat Australia, the world's top ranked team, to win the Oceania Cup, and nail a spot in the field for Rio next year.
True, they have beaten Australia this year, in a shootout to win the Azlan Shah Cup in Malaysia in April, but set aside the overall win-loss record against Australia and just focus on the post-London Olympic period from 2012.
That's the only win in seven internationals between the transtasman rivals.
They have a final preparatory game against Fiji today before the final. Australia won a tight round robin game 3-1 on Thursday, three of the four goals coming in the last nine minutes.