KEY POINTS:
Game three of a 30-match season might seem a little on the early side to be talking about a must-win contest.
But should the Breakers suffer a third consecutive home loss - against a Townsville Crocodiles side that has lost four straight - it's hard to imagine their fourth NBL season turning out much different from the first three fruitless campaigns.
Had the chips fallen their way, the Breakers could easily be heading into tonight's game with a 2-0 record and a good measure of confidence under their belts. They didn't and they aren't.
Instead, tonight's match will be a battle between two teams who must be down on confidence after the setbacks of recent weeks.
If it comes down to who is suffering worst, the Breakers should just about be able to sneak their first win of the season. Townsville (1-4) may have a win to their name but, having dropped their last four - including a 29-point thrashing by Brisbane on Saturday - that will seem a long time ago.
The winless Breakers, by contrast, have matched both of their opponents so far only to blow it when the pressure has gone on down the stretch.
Coach Andrej Lemanis is still reasonably bullish about the New Zealand club's prospects. "Everybody still firmly believes in what we are doing," he said.
But he did admit to some concern over the errant shooting that cost his side last week's match against the Razorbacks. In that game, the Breakers won the rebounding battle, gave away less turnovers and had more shots, Lemanis pointed out.
But they didn't sink many of those shots and rank fourth from bottom in the league in field goal percentage.
Lemanis, however, believes the shooting woes are a temporary blip.
"When you look at the shots [the Razorbacks] were making and compare them to the shots we missed, if we continue to do that over the course of a season we believe the odds will fall our way.
"We have spent a bit of time this week refining what we want to do when we have a clutch play, where we go and who we give the ball to."
Doubtless the who of that equation will be Kirk Penney, who nailed a barrage of three-pointers as the Breakers almost pulled off an unlikely comeback against the Razorbacks.
While Penney's form was promising, there must be concerns over that of veteran Australian centre Tony Ronaldson, who backed up an encouraging debut against Cairns Taipans with a horror night against the Razorbacks.
Ronaldson's shocker aside, there have been areas of encouragement for the Breakers. Import Rick Rickert has been effective close to the hoop in both scoring and rebounding and Penney's 23 points against the Razorbacks were the most by a Kiwi on their NBL debut.
As a team they have conceded the fewest turnovers per game (12) - the Crocodiles are bottom with 22 - and they also lead the league in blocking shots.
Forward Mika Vukona backed up Lemanis's optimism: "With a bit more composure the two games we've lost could easily have gone the other way, so we're still positive and confident in what we're doing," Vukona said.
"It's time to gel. We've had a fair amount of time with the six new recruits and we're starting to work out their strengths and understand how best to play with them."
* Phill Jones notched up his highest score against the Razorbacks, the 19 points leaving him just 14 points shy of becoming the 8th Breaker to score 500 points in the NBL. Mika Vukona requires just two points to reach 400 points for the club.
