KEY POINTS:
The Auckland Stars' NBL playoff hopes are hanging by a thread heading into tonight's penultimate regular-season match against the defending champion Hawkes Bay Hawks at ASB Stadium.
With just the Harbour Heat having booked their post-season spot and four teams still in playoff contention, a logjam looks likely in the battle for the remaining berths.
Having endured a late-season slump, the Stars (10-6) are outsiders to emerge from a pack including the Hawks (11-5), Nelson (12-5) and Waikato (11-5).
Having been thrashed by 23 points by the Hawks just 10 days ago, the Stars find themselves needing to not only reverse that result but also the hefty margin of defeat.
A win tonight would pull the Stars level with the Hawks on 22 points. With both teams having winnable final round matches - Auckland host Otago (2-14) and Hawkes Bay host Canterbury (3-12) - they would likely finish the regular season locked on 24 points.
In the event of a two-way tie, the first tie-breaker would be determined by the head-to-head record. To claim the split over the Hawks the Stars need to win tonight by at least 24 points.
For the Hawks the equation is simple: win tonight and they are in the playoffs. A Hawks win would also book Nelson's post-season spot, leaving the Stars and Waikato to contest the final semifinal berth.
Waikato, who are two points ahead with a game in hand and riding an eight-game winning streak, could then edge the Stars out with a win at Harbour Heat on Wednesday or at home to Taranaki on Friday.
But, if the Stars win by less than 24 points, they'll be sweating on their North Harbour cousins to do them a favour by beating Waikato.
If that happens, the Pistons would find themselves in a tie - should Nelson lose their final game at Wellington - alongside the Stars and Hawks.
That would suit the Stars, who would survive a multi-team tie-breaker decided on the head-to-head records.
Waikato would be the team to miss out, having lost both encounters with the Hawks and Nelson and having split the season series against the Stars 1-1.
For all that to happen, the Stars must win tonight. But with just one win in their last five matches, such a result seems unlikely.
