KEY POINTS:
With a bit of help from Tab Baldwin we weigh up the prospects for the national league which tips off with the blitz tournament today:
NELSON GIANTS
Key arrivals: Import Faron Hand
Key losses: Import Eric Freeman
Key retentions: Import Josh Pace, veteran Ed Book, Mika Vukona
Wild card: A question mark hangs over the availability of Tall Black Phill Jones, whose Italian club is making a late charge into playoff contention that may prevent him returning in time to help the Giants. Coach Nenad Vucinic has won more NBL games than anyone.
Record: Last won the title in 1998, but have made the semifinals eight of the past 10 seasons.
Tale of the Tab: "This is the team to slot in as favourites. They have got all the pieces. Young guys who have been coming on are now very solid, established NBL players. Faron Hand looks like he's going to be a very good player and Mika Vukona is really going to break out this year. I guess the only question marks are over Ed Book's health and age and whether Phill Jones will come back and play. Last year Phill performed pretty poorly in play-offs and I don't think that would happen again. He is such a classy player, the type of guy who could put them over the top."
Possible finish: 1st
HAWKES BAY HAWKS
Key arrivals: Import Shane Nicely, Clifton Bush
Key losses: Import Field Williams, Adrian Majstrovich
Key retentions: League MVP Paora Winitana, Tall Black Paul Henare, import Kareem Johnson
Wild card: Coach Shawn Dennis has given former ANBL slam dunk champion Everard Bartlett a chance to claim the shooting guard spot by not recruiting a small import. Pre-season form suggests he is ready.
Record: Finalists the past two years, champions in 2006.
Tale of the Tab: "This is a very good basketball team with a lot of depth and class on its roster. When you've got guys like Paora Winitana and Paul Henare you've got a great start towards having an exceptional team. These are the guys you can build around. They won't bring too much off the bench but they have a good, solid line-up."
Possible finish: 2nd
AUCKLAND STARS
Key arrivals: Import Tashaan Forehan-Kelly
Key losses: Imports Josh Nigut and Brock Gillespie, reserves Darryl Cartwright and Reece Cassidy
Key retentions: Tall Blacks Casey Frank and Dillon Boucher, former MVP Lindsay Tait
Wild card: The best road team in 2005 (7-2), the Stars were the only unbeaten home team in their first season back at ASB Stadium. Hard to imagine them not contending, but they have been the slowest to pick up the pieces for 2007 and may struggle early.
Record: Have missed the semifinals just once (2002) in the past 13 years, last won the title in 2005 and were best in the regular season last year.
Tale of the Tab: "If we stay healthy and our coaching staff and experienced players are able to bring the younger guys through then I think we'll be a pretty tough unit and I think we'll pick up enough wins along the way to ensure we are a challenger for the play-offs. I'm optimistic we can have a good season and have a good crack at a championship."
Possible finish: 3rd
WELLINGTON SAINTS
Key arrivals: Coach Kevin Brooks, import JD Collins, former MVP Adrian Majstrovich, Troy McLean
Key losses: None
Key retentions: Import Nick Horvath, veteran Terrence Lewis, Brendon Polyblank
Wild card: Saints have been plagued by pre-season injuries - Horvath will miss the start of the season with a broken thumb and Polyblank is doubtful after foot surgery over the summer. The addition of Majstrovich and an import at point make them bona fide title contenders.
Record: Historically one of the league's glamour teams, especially during the 1980s. They won the title in 2004 and were beaten in the semis last year.
Tale of the Tab: "Not only one of the glamour sides, they also have the glamour roster. Their roster just looks like a championship team. They have the ability to score, rebound and shoot the ball. But it is a matter of pulling it all together. They have a new coach in Kevin Brooks and there are big question marks over him as he has come out of the Australian league. He'll be after a championship and, when you have the line-up he has, everyone will expect him to win it. If they can get the chemistry right then they will certainly be a team you have to go through to get the championship."
Possible finish: 4th
HARBOUR HEAT
Key arrivals: Coach John Dorge, NZ Breakers/imports Oscar Forman and Tim Behrendorff, Nat Connell
Key losses: Coach Steve Done, Troy McLean, Mike Homik
Key retentions: Hayden Allen, Brent Charleton, Jarrod Kenny
Wild card: Harbour got absolutely nothing from their imports last season, so Forman and Behrendorff can only be improvements. Breakers assistant Dorge guides a new-look programme that looms as the dark horse of this year's league.
Record: Last sighted in the playoffs back in 2000 and also-rans ever since.
Tale of the Tab: "They have got a pretty settled team and have added Forman and Behrendorff, who played together at the Breakers. Jarrod Kenny will continue to improve. He's a guy who can lead this team and he has scorers all around him. The big question mark is over Nat Connell, who has not settled into any team but has an immense amount of talent. If he can settle in then, all of a sudden, this will be a very strong team."
Possible finish: 5th
WAIKATO PISTONS
Key arrivals: Coach Murray McMahon, import Kevin Smith, Tall Black captain Pero Cameron, Mike Homik
Key losses: Import Vidal Massiah
Key retentions: Ben Hill, Luke Martin
Wild card: Cameron will arrive late from Iran and plans to return briefly mid-season to help his club in their title bid. Others will have to cover his absence if the Pistons are to appear in the post-season.
Record: Won titles under Jeff Green in 2001, '02, and were semifinalists in 2005.
Tale of the Tab: "They were second to last last year but I don't think that'll happen again. I've talked to Pero and he'll be there at the most important part of the season. Ben Hill had a very good season last year and he's not going to want to have another good year without the wins to go with it. There's no doubt they'll be targetting at least a winning record and probably a play-off spot. And if Pero has a good run with them at the end then they could be a contender."
Possible finish: 6th
MANAWATU JETS
Key arrivals: Reece Cassidy, Matt Te Huna, Rob Tuilave
Key losses: Import Brad Davidson, Clifton Bush
Key retentions: Stacey Lambert, Aaron Nowell
Wild card: Nowell had a breakout season (12.6 points/7.6 rebounds) for the Jets last year, but will need to back it up if they are to be competitive this year.
Record: Palmerston North were runners-up in 1992, but were last in the playoffs in 2003.
Tale of the Tab: "Manawatu are an interesting team. They've picked up some good players. We don't know who their imports will be so we have to wait and see on that front but if they get good imports then they would want to move from spoiler to contender."
Possible finish: 7th
TARANAKI MOUNTAIN AIRS
Key arrivals: Import Gabe Stephenson, coach Trent Adam, Kaine Hokianga
Key losses: Tall Black Tony Rampton
Key retentions: Import Garry Hill-Thomas, veteran Link Abrams
Wild card: Hill-Thomas was leading the NBL scoring contest when he was injured mid-season in '06. If he can recapture that form, the Airs have a chance, but Rampton's loss is huge.
Record: Have somehow survived since re-entering the NBL in 2003, but have not really challenged for a play-off spot.
Tale of the Tab: "They've got a new coach and, although he's untested, he's been around the league a while. I like what he's talking about doing with the team and he's very serious about the job. I don't know about their second import but Hill-Thomas is a good player and they've picked up a good shooter in Kaine Hokianga. If Tony Rampton's brother Damon decides to step up and be the kind of player he can be then that would immensly help their prospects."
Possible finish: 8th
CANTERBURY RAMS
Key arrivals: Import Mychal Green
Key losses: Scoring champion Dennis Trammel, import Sam Spann, Tim Edmonds
Key retentions: Jeremy Kench, Mark Morrison
Wild card: Kench and Morrison are the future of the Rams. Kench was the league's most improved player last year - it could be Morrison's turn in '07.
Record: A league powerhouse in the 1980s and '90s, Canterbury have just one semifinal appearance (2002) this millennium.
Tale of the Tab: "Canterbury are a young side with just the one import in Green. They will be hard-working and Mike Thompson is a kid to watch at 6ft 10in but they are a very young side and a lot will depend on recruiting over the next few weeks. With the group they have they'll win their share of games but I don't see them challenging into the play-offs."
Possible finish: 9th
OTAGO NUGGETS
Key arrivals: Imports Justin Bailey and Jameel Pugh
Key losses: Import Branduinn Fullove
Key retentions: Rebound champion Miles Pearce, Rookie of the Year Shaun Tilby
Wild card: Pugh is billed as one of the world's best dunkers, but is he a team player or merely a sideshow?
Record: Otago have made the semifinals three times (1991, '95, '97) but finished bottom of the table the past two seasons, failing to win away from home last season.
Tale of the Tab: "Otago are very much improved. Their imports are tough guys who are real battlers. Bailey is a scorer but if he decided to involve his team-mates a bit more he could add even more value. But he likes to do it on his own shoulders. They have a roster that is pretty young and not really proven, so a lot will depend on the two imports. I wouldn't rate them near the top of the league."
Possible finish: 10th
MVP CONTENDERS
1. MIKA VUKONA: If the Breaker has a breakout season then he could lead Nelson right to the top and claim the league's top individual honour as a reward.
2. PAORA WINITANA: Picked up the title last year when he led the Hawks to the championship and there's every chance he could repeat the feat.
3. CASEY FRANK: One of the premier players in the league. If the Stars win, he'll be at the heart of it.
4. DILLON BOUCHER: Ditto Mr Frank. Auckland have built their team around the Boucher/Frank combination and it may be tough to separate the pair if the Stars claim yet another title.
5. OSCAR FORMAN: The Australian import caught the eye late in the season for the Breakers and should thrive considering the step down in class. If Harbour click, he'll shine.
