KEY POINTS:
Harbour Heat head into tonight's penultimate regular season match against Wellington Saints at the North Shore Events Centre knowing a victory will seal top place on the ladder and home-court advantage for the playoffs.
For Wellington, the equation is just as simple - lose and their season is as good as over. Harbour, who will be without the 2.05m Australian forward Oscar Forman, will need to back up just 48 hours after Monday night's hard-fought victory over Auckland Stars.
But coach John Dorge is happy enough with an end-of-season schedule that ends with a third consecutive match against a playoff contender - Waikato Pistons - next Wednesday.
A win tonight will give the Heat (13-3) an unassailable lead at the top of the league. That will mean a home semifinal against the fourth-placed qualifier and, should they win that, home-court advantage for the final two games of the three-match finals series.
The picture below them is a little less clear.
Second-placed Nelson will be assured of a playoff spot if they win their final match at Wellington next Thursday. But, should they lose, it could open the door for Auckland Stars, who have the split on Nelson due to home and away victories earlier in the season and the split on Waikato thanks to a one-point differential over their home and away encounters.
For the Stars (10-6) to sneak into the playoffs, they would need to arrest an alarming form slump in which they have lost three of their last four matches. Should they fail to do that against Hawkes Bay at the ASB Stadium on Saturday night, the Stars could only make the playoffs if Waikato lost two of their final three matches.
Waikato's toughest test looks to be the trip to Harbour that splits winnable home games against Canterbury and Taranaki.
Defending champions Hawkes Bay (11-5) will head into Saturday's match knowing a repeat of last Thursday's comprehensive 23-point victory over the Stars in Napier would secure their playoff spot.
But Wellington could throw the race wide open with a victory over Harbour tonight and another against Nelson in their final match next week.
