Melbourne have now won 15 of their last 17 games, and their last three against the Breakers. They are the best team in the league, and the Breakers are going to need to find something special to win their final two games in the series and progress to the final.
It'll be a difficult task. Melbourne haven't lost two games in a row since October, and that's what will be required if the Breakers are to advance to another NBL final.
It's not as if the Breakers played particularly poorly either – as usual, they were in the game for the majority of the contest. Melbourne had emphasised the importance of a fast start before the game, and they got their wish as they stormed out to an 11-4 lead. It turned out to be less important than they thought however, as the Breakers bounced back.
Fresh off winning the NBL's Most Improved Player award, Shea Ili showed all of that progress in the first half, getting to the rim with ease as the Breakers initially matched all of United's endeavours.
With Finn Delany ruled out due to concussion and Mika Vukona in foul trouble, the Breakers were trying new looks, playing big lineups featuring two centres. It had its moments, with Alex Pledger proving a strong deterrent at the rim, and Rakeem Christmas providing more production than usual off the bench.
There were some struggles as well, but initially Melbourne bailed them out with some poor offensive execution. While they were struggling to get to the rim, the shots they were settling for were often sub-standard, with Casper Ware especially guilty of chucking up poor looks as he shot 4/13 in the first half.
That changed after the break, with Ware exploding in the third period, and getting help from Casey Prather, who was exploiting the mismatches garnered from the Breakers' unusual lineups.
Melbourne's poor shooting display was never likely to last, and the rebounding edge the Breakers had crafted soon dissipated as United matched their physicality up front.
DJ Newbill stepped up in the second half to join Ili in producing most of the Breakers' offence, but Rob Loe (0/6 shooting) and Tom Abercrombie (2/7) were quiet.
In a quarter where everything needed to go right, the Breakers were a bit sloppy in possession, finishing with 15 turnovers, and they couldn't find any easy buckets in transition.
Missed shots at crucial times proved pivotal, and Ware kept gunning, finishing with 33 points on 13/29 shooting as Melbourne pulled away in the final moments.
To keep their title hopes alive, the Breakers will need improvements, and could get them when they return home to Auckland for Game Two.
If they don't, their season will be over tonight.