Eddie Jones' tenure as England head coach seems to be on shaky ground. Photo / Photosport
This was not an easy conclusion to come to but, unless England win in France or he can change significantly, then why should Eddie Jones keep his job as England head coach?
He has a good overall winning record, but in the last two seasons England finished fifth last year and could be anything outside the top two this year. The last two years have not been anywhere near good enough.
If England lose on Saturday, something has to change. You can say that England were plucky against Ireland and gave a good effort. But plucky at home to Ireland is not the sort of narrative you want to have if you are meant to be one of the top sides in the game. They actually threw away a chance of an historic 14-man victory.
Defensively, England were poor last Saturday. I said in the column last week that they had to pile up the rucks and slow down the ball. Well, they didn't do that. They went for a wide defensive line which was unorganised, rushing out at different speeds. The Irish guys cut England to shreds. It was manna from heaven for Johnny Sexton - fast ball, fast ball, fast ball. You can work all day long with that.
One of the major problems is that Jones is always coming up with good excuses. There has always been a complaint, a theme, a change of staff. The turnover in coaching personnel has been very high and I don't think he has always had great quality in there compared to the coaching staffs of France or Ireland. Does Eddie need that much control, to just have people there who do what they're told?
The risk you face if you keep talking about developing during Rugby World Cup cycles, as he often does, is that you can get to the World Cup with a spine of talented players who are under-capped. Which raises all sort of questions.
Without Manu Tuilagi, England have no dynamism in that backline. You have a lot of nice players, but no explosive runners. Ireland showed England up out wide on the weekend - and it's a major problem.
I cannot see Eddie working for anyone else. So, if you said you wanted to put someone above him in a director of rugby role, he would pull the plug himself. Even though in that scenario you could have someone there to control selection, the media and allow Eddie just to coach - and he is undoubtedly a good coach, as we have seen many times. Then you might be in a better position. The names that come to mind are Stuart Lancaster, Mark McCall or Rob Baxter - although I could never see Baxter leaving Exeter.
Does Warren Gatland want the job? Could you tempt him back from the Chiefs in New Zealand to come and take over before the All Blacks consider appointing him in 2023? Nobody else in World Rugby has the financial might of England. That can be a factor.
Lancaster would be the obvious person I would turn to. He knows all the mistakes he made the first time around coaching England. He has spent the last few years winning trophies and developing players at Leinster, working with Leo Cullen. It would be very unlikely that he made the same errors again with England, having rightly paid the price back in 2015, but now he'd have the chip on his shoulder you need to be England boss.
What is clear is that there needs to be some change. Whether that's personnel, or Jones changing himself. He has to be more amenable. He has been very defensive with the media, almost to the extent where nobody else's opinion matters but his. "I don't read the papers - oh by the way, don't say that about me." Either you read them, or you don't.
Put some fun back into the job. Every press conference there is a dig at something, or a wry smile. He just comes across as a know-it-all (and I should know). As an England supporter, I am bored of his excuses, of the rhetoric that comes out of his mouth. There is always something that didn't go England's way. Boo-hoo, that's professional sport. There is always something that doesn't go your way - but good sides, good coaches, find a way to get beyond that and win. They do not make repeated mistakes out on the field. England were down to 14 men after 80 seconds - so what? Find a way.
It's time for the excuses to end and for someone else to start a new journey - win, lose, or draw against France. A win will probably save Eddie's job. Another plucky performance though... is that what England have come to? Being plucky in defeat?
I can't see England winning against France. I hate to say it. There will be a lot more pressure on France having not won a Grand Slam for over a decade, but that French side are just too good and England are just not good enough. Which leaves Eddie's job in a perilous position. Either he changes - again! - or his job is changed.