But for a couple of moments and a few performances, the tourists could already have been holding an unassailable lead. And it’s similarly easy to imagine the hosts having by now wrested back the cute little urn Australia have held for five years.
The old foes are evenly matched, with flaws and match-winners in equal numbers. For the neutral — Kiwis with similar levels of antipathy for both teams — it’s the best-case scenario.
In sport, we want matches and series swinging back and forth between potential outcomes, and in test cricket we want every result possible when watching the final ball delivered each day, or at least when checking the scorecard after waking up.
2. The rivalry
Two teams facing off for 150 hours in a year would be wild. England and Australia will finish near that number in six weeks.
It’s no wonder this is a proper rivalry, needing none of the manufactured malice that some of our rugby teams manfully attempt.
Even if Australia are apparently woke now, because captain Pat Cummins acts like a normal person and because that term has been stripped of all meaning, they’re still Australia. They still have Steve Smith and David Warner and spite dripping alongside sweat.
And even if England may now draw a reluctant rooting interest in this country, on account of the Kiwi coach and son-of-a-Kiwis-player skipper, they’re still England. There’s still haughtiness in the stands and entitlement on the field.
It’s a beautiful combination, one only enhanced by the shenanigans at Lord’s.
3. The narratives
And what shenanigans they were. No matter your feelings on Alex Carey’s legitimate stumping of Jonny Bairstow, the fallout was delicious.
From the erudite Stuart Broad acting like a schoolboy after replacing Bairstow at the cease, to Humphrey Wigbert-Porter and pals warmly welcoming the tourists back to the pavilion, to the nations’ tabloids responding in suitably unhinged fashion, plenty of soapiness was lathered on the drama.
The main plotline has also been additive. Bazball is a term disliked by Stokes and Brendon McCullum, and it’s becoming a little more grating by the reference, but England’s style — and the reaction it stirs — shows Bazball working as designed.
McCullum said in Hamilton earlier this year: “We want to make test cricket entertaining and ensure people walk away with a great experience.” That mission has been accomplished.
The way England play creates as many opportunities for the opposition as for themselves. The Black Caps took barely enough in their drawn series, and Australia likewise seized what their hosts had offered in the first two tests.
Entertaining is right, especially when compared to the miserable England who had won only one of 17 tests before McCullum’s appointment, including a 4-0 humbling the last time the famous dust was on the line.
Steve Smith in happier times. Photo / Getty Images
4. The stakes
That 2021-22 series was slightly less beguiling. With Tim Paine having sexted his way out of the captaincy — becoming after Smith the second Australian test skipper in succession to resign in dewy-eyed disgrace — Cummins revitalised the side. England, a punchy Stokes in a spot of bother of his own, continued going nowhere under Joe Root.
Australia ended a third straight series with the urn in their fingers, achieving that feat for the first time since the halcyon days of the 90s while increasing their overall Ashes edge to 34-32.
Avoid defeat at Old Trafford and the Oval and Australia will do what England haven’t since the 19th century: hold the Ashes for a fourth series in succession. They’ll be immediate favourites to make it five when the teams next head downunder.
Alternatively, if a buoyant England build on victory at Headingley to take out the fourth and fifth tests, they will be the first side since Australia in 1937 to come from 2-0 down and claim the urn.
5. The competition
So what could edge the Ashes to the somewhat subjective title of the best sport this year? Guess we do have World Cups in four of our biggest codes, but I’m setting the over/under for New Zealand titles at 0.5 and taking the under.
Those tournaments — football, netball, cricket and rugby — will provide varying degrees of amusement, but it’s never the same when a vested interest doesn’t pay off.
The Warriors making a run in the NRL playoffs will be fun regardless of the final result, but history offers every reason against inflating hopes.
There’s the usual array of annual highlights, and this is a Ryder Cup year, but none of that can match this epic 25-day duel. (Now max of 24 but still.)
