OPINION:
It will be a very close Prada Cup final - there are just too many variables for it to be a whitewash.
And in this close battle, I do favour one team, just.
The last race between Team Ineos UK and Luna Rossa, during the round robin, was one
America's Cup 2021: AUT's Sailing Professor Mark Orams - Who I'm picking to win the Prada Cup
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And on form and pedigree, it makes Sir Ben Ainslie's Ineos the favourites in my book.
The Brits have excelled so far through having a dedicated tactician in Giles Scott who can look far ahead.
This leads to simple, clear and concise options being communicated to the helmsman/skipper Ainslie, who makes the final decision. This is key.
And this is where the Italians face a challenge with their two-helmsmen system, where each makes the call when he has the wheel while the other helps fly the yacht and control the mainsail traveller.
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Under pressure, it will be a vital factor, and Ainsley and Scott will have planned to exploit this by using any opportunity to force rushed decision-making by Luna Rossa.
It seems like a long time since the Prada Cup semifinals where American Magic's campaign was ended in a "brutal" fashion, as their skipper Terry Hutchinson put it.
The Prada Cup finalists will have been going all out since then to find more speed.
A key is the search for synergy, where a number of relatively minor changes to different aspects of the yacht can produce significant results, as the Brits showed by the way they recovered so magnificently after their dismal pre-Christmas showing.
Foiling craft are notoriously finicky - small changes make major differences.
The sailors are fastidious about the settings.
Adjustments of a few millimetres can determine whether a boat is stable, balanced and capable of being pushed hard, or seems to have a mind of its own.
When things are out of whack, a foiling craft becomes a nightmare and dangerous, as we saw with American Magic.
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For Luna Rossa and Ineos Team UK (and Team New Zealand for that matter), the fundamentals of their design choices were set many months ago. They are now in small refinement territory.
Every sailor knows that even a small speed advantage makes life a lot easier in racing because it allows you to stretch when leading, and to manufacture a pass when behind. A speed advantage also gives opportunities to recover from a small mistake.
In contrast, a speed disadvantage means pushing harder, taking greater risks and finding it very difficult to recover from even small errors.
There will be trade-offs. For example, a larger area foil design will give earlier lift off in light winds, have added reliability in turns and enable more aggressive pre-starts. However, they will usually be slower in higher wind strengths and straight-line sailing, especially downwind.
So, what choices do you make? Difficult but important calls.
Another area all teams (including Team NZ) will have been working on is their on-board decision making. These boats are so fast and on edge, and the course area so constrained, that every team has been forced into rushed decisions.
At the highest level, anticipation is the key.
How will the Jimmy Spithill/Francesco Bruni combination respond? This will be a critical factor as the best of 13 race series takes shape.
Professor Mark Orams is a former NZ and world champion sailor, Team New Zealand member, author, environmentalist and Professor of Sport and Recreation at the Auckland University of Technology.
Heading into the Cup racing?
• Give yourself plenty of time and think about catching a ferry, train or bus to watch the Cup.
• Make sure your AT HOP card is in your pocket. It's the best way to ride.
• Don't forget to scan QR codes with the NZ COVID Tracer app when on public transport and entering the America's Cup Village.
• For more ways to enjoy race day, visit at.govt.nz/americascup.
