All Blacks v Wallabies: How Joe Schmidt can spring a surprise for Scott Robertson’s men - Editorial

Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt will have unique insights into the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport

EDITORIAL

The thing about a surprise sporting defeat is you don’t see it coming. Hence the surprise.

As soon as the All Blacks returned from their brave yet fruitless two-test trip to South Africa, discussion turned to the perils they face on the end-of-year tour, on which they will play three of the best teams in the men’s game – all with recent form for putting the All Blacks on their backside: England, Ireland and France.

Almost forgotten in the discussion is the small matter of two tests against the Wallabies, the first of them tonight in Sydney.

It’s easy to understand why All Blacks fans would underrate the Australians’ chance of victory. Joe Schmidt’s side are ninth in World Rugby’s rankings – below Italy and (hilariously) three places below Scotland. No Wallaby has known the taste of beer drunk from the Bledisloe Cup since 2002.

So, it’s understandable that confidence among All Blacks fans is high.

In the nine tests they have played under Scott Robertson, the All Blacks have been inconsistent in their efforts, their approach and their results.

It could be said the men in black have been wobbly ever since the midpoint of the 2017 Lions tour – to be precise, from the 24th minute of the second test, when Sonny Bill Williams got a red card for one of the daftest tackles in All Blacks history. They lost that match, drew the series and were later muscled out of the 2019 Rugby World Cup by a brutal yet tactically limited England team.

From there, the early years of Ian Foster’s time in charge of the side were marked by poor play and poor results.

There has been one period of consistent improvement and clarity of purpose in the All Blacks over that period – from the moment Joe Schmidt joined the coaching team until he left after the 2023 World Cup final.

The former coach of Ireland couldn’t take all the credit but, after he came on board, adroit positional changes were made – notably Jordie Barrett in the No 12 jersey and his brother Scott sticking to the locking role rather than running as a blindside flanker.

With Schmidt involved, the team came within a long-range penalty shot of being crowned champions.

On paper, the biggest strength in the All Blacks’ arsenal against the Wallabies would be their scrum – they performed better in that set piece than both England and Argentina and were (at the very least) the equal of the highly rated Springboks.

But that strength can be a fickle one. In the first test defeat against Argentina, there were no scrums for 60 minutes.

Elsewhere – as they have been since 2017 – uncertainty and inconsistency remain the norm for the All Blacks. Moving Beauden Barrett back to fullback suggests a lack of faith in the thinking that first saw him moved to the bench.

Schmidt’s side have been poor this season; like Robertson, he has seen his side lose to Argentina. For some years, the Wallabies have lacked an even spread of talent.

But he is an inventive and shrewd coach – traits which are also displayed by the best Wallabies teams. And he knows more about the strengths and weaknesses of the talent at Robertson’s disposal than any other coach who will be aiming to topple the All Blacks.

The elements are there for a nasty surprise.