OPINION
By Liam Napier in Paris
Herald rugby editor Liam Napier looks over the big questions ahead of the Rugby World Cup semifinals in Paris this weekend.
All Blacks v Argentina Rugby World Cup semifinal: Liam Napier’s talking points - How will France’s exit affect the World Cup?
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Heads dropped, hearts sank, as locals immediately exited bars and restaurants on the streets of Paris following France’s agonising one-point quarter-final loss to South Africa. The vibrant soul, the joie de vivre, of this World Cup went with them.
As interest among locals inevitably plummets, this tournament won’t be the same.
Hopes and expectations on the hosts to surge deep into the knockout stages fuelled a frenzied World Cup atmosphere.
The noise at the All Blacks and France’s opening match at Stade de France, and in the French quarter-final at the same venue, was off the charts. Whenever France played at this World Cup, those scenes were replicated everywhere you looked – from fan zones to the packed corner brasserie. France’s exit is, therefore, a dagger blow for many local industries.
To this point interest in the tournament has been phenomenal. French television viewership figures offer one such insight, with an average 16.5 million (62 per cent audience share) watching France’s quarter-final on free-to-air.
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An average 9.3 million viewed New Zealand’s quarter-final win over Ireland while 5.8 million watched England sneak past Fiji.
Those numbers are now certain to dive.
Local media have been told to significantly reduce their coverage in the wake of France’s exit, and the black market is flooded with French and Irish fans attempting to offload their tickets to the remaining knockout games.
On Monday, the official Rugby World Cup site alone had over 700 resale tickets for England’s semifinal with South Africa – the match France could have featured in.
From a neutral standpoint, the World Cup was more captivating, more animated, for France’s involvement.
Pro sport doesn’t care for such ideals, though.
Will the All Blacks make changes?
The All Blacks are never going to take any bold selection risks for their World Cup semifinal. They absorbed that lesson four years ago after shifting Scott Barrett to blindside and leaving Sam Cane on the bench. This group knows their top team – and they’ll largely stick with it for the Pumas. Don’t change a winning formula and all that.
The odd tweak wouldn’t surprise, though. Selection focus centres on the left wing, where Leicester Fainga’anuku could make way for Mark Telea’s return.
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Ian Foster and Jason Ryan were consistent in saying that Telea’s stand-down for a breach of team curfew has been put to bed. While relegation for the semifinal would be harsh on Fainga’anuku after his impact against Ireland, Telea is the incumbent left wing. If the All Blacks are genuine that it was a minor indiscretion, he will return for the Pumas.
Props Tyrel Lomax and Ethan de Groot delivered influential 61-minute shifts against Ireland but as young, hungry men they should be trusted to go again. The only change the All Blacks may consider in the pack is with their locks after Brodie Retallick and Scott Barrett played the full 84 minutes in the quarter-final. Injecting Sam Whitelock for the Pumas could, therefore, appeal.
After experimenting throughout the tournament, the All Blacks have, clearly, settled on their first-choice bench. Anton Lienert-Brown’s defensive efforts from the wing in the final quarter against Ireland were telling. The decision to back inexperienced props Tamaiti Williams and Fletcher Newell paid off too. In their most perplexing selection, the All Blacks seem wedded to Finlay Christie over Cam Roigard, but for the Pumas they may rotate the reserve hooking duties by welcoming Samisoni Taukei’aho’s destructive ball-carrying presence over Dane Coles.
Ryan outlined the All Blacks’ take-no-chances approach to selection this week.
“It is a bit of both around the momentum but also it’s having a look at the numbers and metrics of what the boys played and who did the biggest shift and made the most tackles. You’ve got to be smart around that,” the All Blacks forwards coach said. “Then there’s the other side where you’ve got guys playing in their last World Cup so you want to be out there and give everything they can so it’s a mix of both.”
Who reigns supreme in the North v South debate?
Clive Woodward wasn’t alone in predicting a Northern Hemisphere sweep in last weekend’s engrossing quarter-finals. The definitive balance of power shift to the north has since been rapidly revised.
To be fair, without any real conviction, I tipped Ireland and Wales to emerge from their respective quarter-finals. As it transpired, three of the four Southern Hemisphere superpowers prevailed to offer a healthy dose of perspective on where rugby supremacy resides.
England are – thanks to a decidedly weak draw – the only unbeaten side and the north’s only remaining World Cup hope.
While England’s conservative, set piece, kick-heavy, drop goal-embracing style should be more competitive against the Springboks than many expect, the odds are now stacked in favour of crowning a ninth Southern Hemisphere champion from 10 World Cups.
Once again, though, perspective is needed.
A second Springboks-All Blacks World Cup final, should that play out, would lead to suggestions of the south’s dominance of the north when that doesn’t reflect the true landscape.
Ireland and France led the rugby world in the past two years for a reason. Their cruel, crushing quarter-final exits do not render them poor teams overnight.
Pit any of the top four nations – New Zealand, South Africa, France and Ireland – against each other and on any given day those matches remain even odds.
New Zealand and South Africa’s progression speaks to their World Cup success. They’ve been here before, with three world titles each. They know what it takes.
At the top of the rugby world, the north-south divide is non-existent. The true chasm sits with the next tier – those ranked five and below.
Live: All Blacks v Argentina
8am, Saturday
Follow live updates: nzherald.co.nz
Listen to commentary: join Elliott Smith on Newstalk ZB, Gold Sport and iHeartRadio, or catch the ACC on iHeartRadio or Hauraki.
Get full coverage of the Rugby World Cup.
