Auckland real estate experts say it remains a good time to sell.
Real estate industry leaders predict house prices in Auckland are likely to remain steady
in 2018.
The heads of three companies - Harcourts, LJ Hooker and Barfoot & Thompson - all say they don't see fluctuations either up or down of more than two or three per cent over the coming 12 months.
A fourth, Bayleys, expects the number of properties on the market to increase - from a "trickle" to a "flow" - but says they are unlikely to return to the "flood" levels of recent years.
All say, with moves to bring more housing stock on-stream likely to take a long while before having any effect, it remains a sellers' market.
Bayleys Real Estate managing director, Mike Bayley, says while lower immigration numbers may put a dampener on the Auckland market, there is every sign that what was a trickle of listings will return to a flow - "although not the flood levels the market experienced for a prolonged period.
"For vendors looking at selling their residential property now, yes, they have missed the peak," he says. "But the opportunity for the immediate future is still to sell in the second best market New Zealand has seen this generation.
"Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2018, it's safe to say the four main drivers of the residential market - desire, debt, death and divorce - will still be in play as they have always been, no matter the stage of the market cycle."
Bayley says it appears the LVR restrictions have achieved their short-term goal of reigning in the rampant growth of a runaway housing market.
But he says these, along with other regulations introduced by the previous government, have adversely affected the sector of the market needing protection - the outer Auckland suburbs and provincial cities.
"Traditionally these are the domain of entry-level to middle-value homes and are where first home buyers have borne the brunt through fewer listings and sales."
Chris Kennedy, CEO of Harcourts NZ, says it is hard to say where prices will go in the next year.
"To some extent you need a crystal ball but, if the economy is solid and business confidence strong, prices will remain steady," he says. "But if the government delivers what it says it will - cuts in immigration and an Auckland fuel tax - the economy is likely to be adversely affected.
Kennedy believes the proposed Auckland fuel tax will "ratchet up the cost of living. Builders will load the increase into their charges, so the end-consumer will pay for this multiple times."
Kennedy says he finds interesting government aims to build 100,000 new homes (half of them in Auckland) over the next 10 years: "Auckland needs up to 17,000 new homes every year for the next 10 years - I don't think 10,000 permits have been issued in the last decade.
"Auckland sees itself as an international city and destination," he says. "So we need to behave like one, we need to sort out our infrastructure issues like roading and housing."
Kennedy says Harcourts figures show house prices increased an average of one per cent across the country in September (compared to September 2016) but in Auck
and they fell by 1.8 per cent - a trend he expects to be maintained throughout 2018.
Barfoot & Thompson managing director, Peter Thompson, says he cannot see a swing of more than two or three per cent either up or down in 2018.
He says the market is still faced with the same factors that have contributed to the sales slowdown in the last 18 months - tighter LVR and bank lending criteria - while more recent developments like the government's proposal to bar overseas investors from buying existing homes are likely to impact prices.
"I don't see this changing until and unless we have an influx of new apartments and houses," he says.
Keith Niederer, general manager of LJ Hooker, says the shortage of listings together with tight bank lending criteria means prices should remain relatively steady.
"The problem," he says, "is the loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions and the tighter lending policies of the banks; this means they are less tolerant and accommodating than in the past."
However Niederer says it is possible more properties will come on to the market after Christmas - a time when Aucklanders often think about moving away from the city.
"The regions are still attractive and Aucklanders are sick of the traffic and the high cost of living," he says. "Now the new government is talking about bringing in a fuel tax and when Aucklanders have been away for their holidays they are more open to getting out, it's what happens at that time of year. So we might see more stock coming on."