The Auckland cycle has peaked and will probably sit flattish with small rises for a few years, says BNZ's chief economist Tony Alexander.
Writing in his weekly overview he says the two forces causing the flattening are the 40 per cent deposit requirement preventing many investors from buying, and average prices finally reaching a "new temporary equilibrium".
"The market has not flattened because of rising interest rates, recession, a migration collapse or supply surge," he says.
He points to various factors that caused the market to heat up. These include FOMO (fear of missing out) catch-up buying, and well-known issues such as stock shortages, weak construction, and lengthening life expectancy.
Alexander says prices on average have flattened out with a small downward bias stemming from Auckland (down 4 per cent) while the Christchurch measure has been hit by an oversupply of property (down 3.5 per cent).