Auckland investors still hungry

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The latest round of lending restrictions has taken some heat out of the market, particularly in Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Canterbury.

There has been a decline in the number of sales for the past six months, and this has impacted all buyer types, from first-home buyers to investors. Values are now falling in Auckland and Hamilton and have stopped increasing in Tauranga.

This market cooling could be caused by a number of factors including falling demand or tight supply of mortgage finance.

Property investors have been a dominant feature of the Auckland market. They have seen the value of their investments increase considerably over the past few years, and that has been a motivation for many, rather than the traditional return from rental income.

A decline in investor activity may therefore reflect a sentiment that house price rises are no longer likely, or those investors are struggling to secure mortgage funding, especially in light of the new 40 per cent deposit requirement.

My view is that in Auckland it is the latter. Their ability to buy has been curbed, not their appetite.

Evidence for this is from the way investors are funding their purchases.

Much of the drop in sales to investors over the past few months has been mirrored by a drop in the number of sales where investors needed a mortgage to support the purchase.

Meanwhile, the number of sales where a mortgage was not required, or cash sales, stayed steady.

You could also speculate that investors currently finding it difficult to secure mortgage finance will be shopping around, or thinking of other ways to make the purchase work.

This conclusion is backed up by investors, bankers and mortgage brokers that I have spoken to.

Another sign of falling investor confidence would be an increase in the number of investors putting some of their properties on the market, seeking to maximise profits ahead of a market correction.

Our analysis shows that there has been no such increase in investor properties being listed. Their share of the properties currently listed for sale is at, or even slightly below, their normal share.

This tells me that investors not finding it hard to secure mortgage finance are still buying, and most investors are continuing to hold, as they still see future house price growth.

Why is that? Most investors look at our high migration, low interest rates, our worsening Auckland housing shortage and expect prices to continue rising in the medium term. I agree.

• Jonno Ingerson, DIrector of research at CoreLogic.