KEY POINTS:
The soaring popularity of National's John Key has pushed Helen Clark off her throne as preferred Prime Minister, a position she has held unassailed for eight years.
This forum debate has now closed. Here is a selection of your views on the topic.
Debbie C (Auckland)
It's time for a change of leadership in New Zealand. I have always voted Labour and come from a family who are strong Labour supporters but I personally feel highly disappointed in Helen Clark. She seems to have lost touch with the average New Zealander and lost sight of the things that really matter. The crime and child abuse in this country is getting out of control and a lot of this is due to the fact that our Justice System is weak (who controls the Judges decisions on sentencing?).Why are the Judges in this country not made to use maximum sentences available in serious violent crimes? New Zealand is no longer a safe place to live and in recent years the situation has gotten worse. Also we have families who are living hand to mouth and as a result their children are suffering (a lot of this is due to the minimum wage). Whenever Helen Clark is on T.V I go to the off switch as she seems to talk alot of political jargon that is doing no good what so ever.
Ben (Auckland)
The TV3 poll that came out Sunday was somewhat expected but still took me by surprise at the leaps and bounds John Key is making. Helen's so called demise is a part of reality, no government apart from the first Labour government (that had WWII to deal with) and the first successive National government have ever gone beyond 3 terms. Stuff happens, people no matter how conservative want change and their own opinions,ideals and interpretation of Wellington mixed with democracy will cause a government to change. This is democracy at work here, love the government or disown it democracy and the voter has the final say. As for a regard to National and internal divisions, I was at the Regional Conference in the weekend as a full voting delegate, yes there will be always divisions that politics, but we know as Nats we must draw together and create policy to help John Key become the next PM in 08 and that is what we are doing! Remember in say 3 terms time I will be here saying the same but in for the next Labour leader - democracy, fickled but we are lucky. Thank you Prime Minister Clark and Labour for the soon to be 9 years, but I am ready for change.
Luke
Because this government is weak when punishing crims, hands out money to dole bludgers and takes all they can from the working few. That is why we are ready for a change.
Terry
What do you expect Helen? You voted against 80 per cent of us, in fact you have effectively voted yourself our of Government. Now its time for a new leader who will listen and represent the people! Will it be John Key... perhaps or maybe New Zealand should make this a three horse race and chose Destiny. I'm voting Destiny, even though I dont belong to their church.
Jacqui
We need someone who can push us in the right direction as a country.
Helen, a great women has lead a very liberal society which has caused huge debate and increase in crime, deaths, and turning the country into a political crap mad house. eg - We have a huge drink/driving problem. How to solve this? Zero limit! (no alcohol at all when driving) This will lessen any confusion as to how we measure when we are over the limit. We have a major physical abuse problem. How to solve this? For those who cannot afford to bring up a child, have someone else look after it, (Without us hard working people paying for them to bring up hundreds of children they cannot raise properly) and who slam them against the wall. If you hit anyone – you're put away. Done. No ifs, no buts. Parents can smack. Parents cannot Abuse. Fix the roads. Dont talk about public transport! We cannot afford to buy a house in the city anyway, so those who live outside the clown brigade wouldn't be bothered waiting even longer to get home!
Jay (AKL)
Go John! Helen resign now, she has dictated too long. The people of NZ wont forget this anti-smacking bill at the next election. Down with Labour and "go Johnny go."
Raj Subramanian
People are looking for alternatives. Where Don Brash failed to capitalize,John Key succeeded. I understand it is just a beginning. It is the Labour philosophy rather than Ms.Helen Clark herself. As John Key admitted, I think Ms.Clark is the shrewdest politician around. Our changed preference is due to 1)her conservative finance Minister 2)the necessity to please Greens 3)Key's inclusive stand on Anti-smacking bill 4)The big police sex cases 5)Australian successive tax cuts and their booming economy. We would wait and watch whether she comes up with something strong and Key makes some mistakes. It is a long way to Key.
Des,retired concerned senior citizen
Helen Clark has lost control & leadership of her cabinet. The country is being taxed to the max with no benefit obvious. Michael Cullen has no expertise in finance & the country is in a mess. Health, education, justice & police to name a few. John Key is a successful financier & an obvious leader with vision. Also he is surrounded by very capable people to take on important cabinet portfolios.
Zpete (Mt Wellington)
Having watched and listened to John Key since he became leader of the National party, I feel we may have another Keith Holyoake in waiting.
We have to rid ourselves of Labour's kissy kissy methods of consensual governing, trying to keep all the Helenists happy. We need some incentive to keep people in the country too. Tax breaks for the impoverished middle class who put Labour into power would be nice. Helen's use by date has long passed.
Alex (Japan)
Well I lived in a state house too. And my parents always voted Labour and I voted labour in 1999. And I got 2 University degrees and a career by way of student loan (all paid including interest with Japanese Yen) .and guess what??..The last 9 years of government in NZ has done nothing to improve my long term prospects. I admit it. I made a mistake. Labour had the wrong policies and the wrong ideas. We wasted 9 golden years of opportunity, the longest run of sustained global growth in decades (USA, Australia, UK in particular). The truth hit home to me this year while planning to return to NZ when I investigated what Working For Families means? Every family earning up to $60,000 effectively receives the same income after benefits and taxes! This is not fair! To make matters worse if you earn more than 60k you are taxed at 39 per cent and 60k is the bare minimum to survive. So when things were going so well..how did we all get worse off? I am 32 years old. Of the people I went to school with 50 per cent are living overseas, half of those have married foreigners and are unlikely to return. We received about as many immigrants who chose NZ as a lifestyle choice (a leisurely early retirement) The magnitude of our folly has not even started to hit home yet! Its time for everyone to get real and wake up!
Ian
Interesting that most of those that are baying for Helen's blood are also those who have benefited from huge increases in the value of their homes since 2000, the lowest levels of unemployment in the developed world including a huge reduction in the percentage of Maori unemployed, therefore reduced potential problems down the track. I wonder if the increases in property values would have occurred if we had followed our old allies blindly into the Iraqi invasion, as we surely would have had the Nats been in power then, therefore NZ would not be perceived overseas as such a safe country to live in. To even suggest that Helen Clark was PM for the money is ridiculous beyond belief, it is impossible to imagine any National leader that would work anywhere near as hard as she has in the PM's job. It never fails to amaze me how people run like rats from a sinking ship when times are even "perceived" as getting tougher. And to all those Key supporters, what does Key actually stand for? You're a better person than me if you can tell me that, because other than the usual tax-cuts, as a member of the general public, I don't know? From past experience with National governments, nothing ever changes for the better anyway, and in the decade up to 1999 NZ was going absolutely nowhere economically or socially. Also for all you knockers, don't forget NCEA was originally a National government idea !
Kiwi (India)
I think the Labour government has done a great job in areas - but definitely time for a change. In recent years they seem to have lost sight of some serious human issues. Hospital queues are still a mess - even after 8 years, and I've never understood the constant harping on about being 22nd in the world for broadband, when we're 3 in the world for suicide and 2nd for putting people in jail. There seem to be some pretty serious life and death issues out there - but all the splashy headlines seem to focus on taking the private sector apart - who seem to have taken the hint and are now moving off shore. Add to that the propensity for changing the law when they break it themselves - not good.
Dansearle
Early days yet. The National Party still has internal divisions which will surface when they start creating policies of their own. The fact that most policies so far have been direct steals from the Labour party suggest they know Labour holds the middle ground pretty well. People may scoff at Helengrad etc, but it is infinitely better to Brethrenograd or Actograd that we would have had if Brash had got his way.
Felix (Mangere Bridge)
Poor Helen. It appears as though she has fallen prey to Tony Blairs' affliction, namely trying to "keep everyone happy all the time". I do sympathise, although only a little, one small tax cut for mankind...., perhaps that was too much to ask?
RW
So John Key will be the country's saviour, leading National to victory? Well, he's a savvy politician and his belated acceptance of climate change realities is a clever move. (The nitwits who continue to shut their eyes to climate issues will struggle to find a party to vote for - serves them right). I have little doubt that National will poll well enough at the next election to form a stable government. After that, we can confidently expect them to address the following issues, none of which has been dealt with by a long succession of earlier governments: (1) The continuing damage to NZ's economy and lifestyle inflicted by globalization and post-Keynesian economics; (2) The disastrous state of the health system; (3) The problem of recidivist violent criminals; (4) Incorrigible drink-drivers (researcher Bailey has only being telling us about this for 30-odd years, so as simpletons we apparently need longer to sort it out); (5) The feral scum that run the country's gangs. Yeah right.
Craig (Auckland)
I am a middleclass working voter. I vote differently each election according to the issues. Even though I care for the environment I will never vote Green. I am a responsible, loving parent. I do not appreciate being told how to discipline my children. Especially by the Prime Minister. The anti-smacking law will be as effective in stopping child abuse as the micro-chipping law will stop serious dog attacks - zero. The housing market is driven by demand - if people did not need some where to live then the demand would drop. It is nothing to do with Mum and Dad investors buying a investment property (which is a form of saving.) So why am now paying over 10 per cent on my floating mortgage? Helen Clark should take note - my vote counts.
Le Fox
The Labour party has been in for too long. People have become well aware of the dishonest politicking of Clark & Cullen, but no one was able to knock them off in all the labour advertising overspending elections. J.K. is well presented, articulate, & is able to impart information that people can understand & appreciate. He has a good back up team to add to his credibility. You need their policies to put N.Z back into a sustainable economy. Give him your vote, you can't lose.
JAB (Rangitikei)
Oh please. Keys claim its time for a change is as facetious as expecting John Howard to move aside graciously for Kevin Rudd in this years Aussie federal election, or expecting the Silver Ferns to give the Poms a turn at winning netball. We all know that Key is a money man wedded to market driven user-pays health, housing and education, and intends further privatisation and asset stripping NZ Inc. not withstanding his erosion of employment rights by revisiting the 90 day bill. Workers voting in next years election will reject his charm offensive because he's a hollow man.
Tejopala
John Key has a lot on his side right now. It is over a year until the election and the government is in its third term. That's exactly when you'd expect the Opposition to be doing well. And he's a new leader who has yet to be tested. Frankly, if he wasn't making some headway in the polls you'd have to ask why. He's yet to be seriously tested, and Clark is no slouch. At the same time, not all of Labour's loss of support is going to National. Some appears to be going to the Greens. If you add up the Labour / Greens / Maori vote it's still pretty high - certainly something that could come back by election night. Personally, I'm sick of all this 'it's time for a change' baying from the right too. John Key is fronting the party that was in bed with extremist fundamentalists at the last election, and which demolished take-home pay with the Emplomment Contracts Act last time it was in power. Have people forgotten what a bunch of thugs National can be? Or how plainly behind the pace they are on major issues like climate change?
Phil Menzies
He's honest. He puts the country first not his political career.
Ben (Auckland)
While I think John Key will be the next prime minister it is far too early to pick it yet, I'm definitely no Helen fan but you must give her, her dues National lost the last election not only because of their shortcomings. But because Labour successfully fought back no mean feat amongst the backdrop of a number of scandals and problems they had. With a different man at the helm it could be an entirely different story we'll just have to wait and see.
The Rangers
Without doubt John Key will be the next PM, even if the Nats don't win outright. NZ needs a change whatever it may be, it must better than what we have at present.
Mrs Larking
Helen Clark is still my pick. In the bigger scheme of things she has managed the country very well. Employment is up, crime is down, the country is in trade surplus - what more do you want? I'll stay with the status quo, and experience. I do not understand the backlash around the anti-smacking bill . It is common sense. If you don't go around slapping adults, why should it be any different for little people. A parent must prepare a child for the real world, and teach them skills that will enable assimilation into society. I have 4 children, and have never slapped one of my children ever. What for? What did I teach them? The means does not justify the ends, when there are better/other avenues available. All Helen Clark needs is a better PR team, and a new foreign ministry team.
Andrew Atkin
Helen Clark comes of as the most sensible person on earth; however, when you stand back and just "read the text" of what she publicly says, you realise that she says little more than 'the sky is blue'. I think Helen Clark has always been a lot more impotent than many people have realised, and John Key is starting to really show her up with a much more natural, involved and insightful manner of expression. I think NZ realises that we need more of a progressive problem-solver government, rather than an essentially dogmatic conservative government (Clark has done nothing materially significant for NZ). Key fits that bill (image-wise at least) far better than Clark.
Kim Hutcheson (Sydney)
It's great news, and well justified. She might be a competent manager but she sorely lacks idealism; her staunch left-wing leanings are a relic from her rebellious teenage years - her parents were strong National supporters. Her government is a meddling, socialist, insidious one full of inexplicable pardons and cover-ups and has done enough damage to keep National busy for the next 3 years just to reverse it. And Key makes Cullen looks like a bumbling fool to boot.
Auckland
I wouldn't get too excited yet. The problem we have is that we have 3 centre left parties in Labour, the Greens and the Maori party. Of the minor parties the Greens and the Maori party will have the most seats (the Maoris mainly due to the dedicated Maori seats which in all honesty should now be wiped seeing as we have a MMP election format and that Maori now have their own party) WEalso have 2 parties who call themselves centre right parties in United and NZ First. These 2 parties have proved time and again that they have no credibility and have both backtracked from their stances prior to elections and supported Labour after them.Unless National can win the election outright without needing support from other parties (a big ask by anyone's account) we will be stuck with a Labour-led centre left government dedicated to creating a country of beneficiaries for ever and a day. After all, we are creating a generation of dependants and who are they going to vote for? Hardly going to bite the hand that feeds them are they?
Tane Wilton
Key's had a dream run with the media, who have failed to critique his lack of policy and flip flops, and have bought the so-called "move to the centre" hook, line and sinker without once looking at what Key actually intends to do once in government. Embarking on a stage-managed car trip to Waitangi with a poor Maori girl and wearing a pink shirt at the Big Gay Out does not a centrist make. I predict Key will be exposed when he actually has to put some policy up closer to the election and face Clark one-on-one in the leaders' debates.
Jack the Ladd (London)
The poll cannot be taken seriously. Key was a money market trader, the equivalent of a used car dealer crossed with a poker player, and now you want to tell us he is the preferred leader. The NZ general public is not that shallow.
Leslie
Who is your preferred PM and why? Good on the NZ public for finally realising that Helengrad has had its day. We are tired of the autocratic, tax us to death, monopolistic government. Time for a changing of the guard, I say.
Ray Gilbert
Soaring interest rates, housing affordability, anti-smacking, excessive immigration, NCEA, police credibility, transport problems, political correctness, health sector problems, gang violence.....just 10 reasons to start with.
Swung voter (Titirangi)
John Key is my preferred Prime Minister because he 'made it' out in the real world then came home to help, not just to relax and enjoy the fruits of his success. He understands where the money comes from - people working, being productive - to pay for schools, welfare, health etc, and how to make it and spend it efficiently. As a good business man, he will reduce red-tape and bureaucracy. He doesn't need the job for the money or the power. He genuinely cares about our society and wants to make all our people stronger and happier. He has young children and so really understands what it's like to bring them up, and how we parents love and care for them and our hopes, through them, for the future. His latest commitment to the environment is icing on the cake.
Peter (Tauranga)
The sooner we get rid of the current bunch of incompetants that make up the current Government the better off we will be.
Go John! At last we have someone in the wings that can bring a much needed breath of fresh air into politics instead of all the control & nanny state intervention in our lives that the current socialists ram down our throats on a daily basis. Fancy having a history professor as minister of finance! You have my support & vote.
Matthew
Definitely John Key. His thinking is fresh and not hide bound by the ideological dogma (eg opposition to private involvement in the health, ACC and prison areas) which characterizes Helen Clark. Unlike almost the entire Labour Party front bench, he has real world experience outside the ivory tower which makes him flexible, adaptable and results oriented. He also has a clear commitment to "making the boat go faster" ie actually growing the size of the national cake rather than simply redistributing the existing portions for short term political gain. Finally, I believe he exhibits far higher levels of personal integrity than Clark (who will in my eyes always be remembered for plundering the public purse when she already had clear advice that the pledge card was outside the rules) and is altogether far more approachable, affable and "comfortable in his own skin".
Alex
John Key is on track to become the best Prime Minister this country has had for decades. Main reason being that he is not a career politician whose sole motivation is to hold the reins of power. History will not be kind to Helen Clarke and her cohorts - they are a bunch of outdated socialist idealogues who have finally been exposed for what they are. My prediction is that we will have an election by the end of this year and by then Helen will have bolted to a cosy, completely irrelevant job with the UN. With a change of government imminent, I feel much more comfortable now about bringing up my children in this country.
Chieftain
I don't know enough about what John Key stands for to rate him as a "preferred" Prime Minister. I do know what Helen stands for, she has been very overt with this. And I don't like it much. Will John Key be any different? Dunno. Hope so. Based on the Smacking Bill compromise, I'm not holding my breath.
Skpp
Time for a change has come. The sooner the better. The PM & the team should follow Tony Blair now.
Kris
Labour was happy to take the credit for a booming economy but when it looks like it is going to nose dive "It's not our fault".
Jon (Auckland)
Politicians are very much like babies nappies, both need changing... and for the same reason! Ms Clark has had an easy run to date, but now that there is a credible opposition she is being found lacking. Change is good.
Trevor
Good on him! I just hope that he is capable of doing the job as it should be done and is not just a charismatic leader with little political experience. Whilst I have never been a big fan of Helen Clark, her political acumen always spoke for itself. Time for a change, though and let's hope it's for the better!
Rob (Tauranga)
John Key is a real statesman and gentleman who is in touch with the feelings of grass roots NZ ers. Always answers questions with clarity and does not fudge issues. Never gets nasty like Helen Clark,Cullen and their lot and conducts himself in a manner which will make us proud when he is the political leader of this country.
National Supporter (Warkworth)
There are many issues that John Key has made ground in, and, in particular, his support of NZ Small Business. NZ has one of largest small business ownerships per capita in the world, and Mr Key recognises this, whereby I have personally struggled for many years, trying to gain assistance or seek information to help me from our current government. Not once have I received the respect of a simple reply or phone call acknowledging my contact. However, a call to Mr Key's secretary, was enough to have an appt made immediately, and a personal meeting with Mr Key, who provided me with some relevant contacts, experience and knowledge. Mr Key works with his people and gets involved personally. Well done, and thank you.
Barb
Finally common sense prevails! If I was Helen Clark I'd be thinking about tax relief in the budget before we lose our good people to the international market and she loses the next election...
Sue O'Neill
The poll surely is no surprise to St Helen of the Pacific and Pope Michael Cullen, after all their continuing disregard for the wishes of the people (democracy) instead of dictatorship, their alienating of families, middle class New Zealanders, we are sick of no tax cuts, they deem people with no children as not worthy of a break, scared they might spend their tax cut if he gave one, most of us need extra money to just keep our heads above water, they campaigned on the last election on vote National and your interest rates would rise - duh! what has happened anyway - government policies have caused this. Most of us are sick of the pandering to Maori, gangs, criminals, beneficiaries and the such - can't wait for next year to have a change, we are so sick of this nanny government interfering in all aspects of our lives.
Arron
I've always held the view that the majority of NZers have an intellect bordering on retarded. And the fact that almost a third of the country (according to this poll) still prefer Clark as PM confirms that suspicion. This career politician has proven herself over time to be the most arrogant PM in NZ history. Plus the government she leads has driven our living standards down to almost the lowest in the OECD despite riding the wave of a global economic boom for almost all of the time of her term. She has proven herself to be dishonest (paintergate) and has demonstrated that she thinks she is above the law (the cavalcade affair and the pledge card fiasco). The only contribution she can boast is to extend welfare to the middle classes in order to entrench her vote, and in providing a tax environment where all of our real talent has been driven overseas. So while it is not surprising that Key is preferred PM, it seems we have a huge proportion of the population who are either welfare dependent or die-hard communists.
Michael
I just hope Helen doesn't screw up any more areas of the country before getting kicked out by us - that will just make a good man's job harder when he gets in.
Michael
No surprise. That's good, NZ needs change. She has hold the power for too long. She is leading NZ heading to 3rd class world. NZers must wake up now.
RH
John Key is number 1. Helen Clark is a has-been and the sooner she is out of New Zealand politics the better for New Zealand!!!
Grahame Ellis
John Key, we need youth and fresh ideas, sensible politics and stop the current dictatorship we are getting from the Clark government.
R Scott
I am glad to see that John Key has disposed the greatest disaster that has ever happened in NZ history.
Ray Eyre (Whangarei)
Good on you John. Chairman Helen, you were warned that New Zealanders had reached their limit of your rubbish and childish nonsense and now the polls prove that. There is no one to blame for this but you own glorious self. This is goodbye to the red party and all that it stood for. I am laughing...
Thomas
A prime minister who's ignorant of the economic status of the country is unfit to run the country. Many symptoms of an impending economic crisis and yet no action. Very appalling for Helen. At least with Key, we could hope for a change rather than be a sitting duck when it all goes pear shaped.