An expert report to Auckland Council suggests a huge shortfall in the amount of affordable terraced housing likely to be built over the next 30 years.
Just 3.6 per cent of new housing intended to address Auckland's housing shortfall and cater for forecast population growth of up to one million new residents is likely to be terraced houses.
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The report found many of the city's local board areas marked for intensification would likely have no terraced housing or apartments built under proposed planning rules because they would not be financially viable.
"The political game that's been played with the Unitary Plan has really fought against sense, so market-attractive areas have been deemed to be political hot potatoes for intensification," Construkt Architects director David Gibbs said.
The findings are outlined in an expert advisory group's "development capacity" report prepared earlier this year for the council's hearings panel considering the Unitary Plan.
The report sparked a council review of planning controls that now looks set to free up more land for multi-level terraced housing and deliver more affordable homes for first-time buyers.
It charts what housing is likely to be built across the city's 19 local board areas over the next 30 years.
While the council originally aimed to build 400,000 new homes, the report found only 83,000 were economically feasible.
Just 3.6 per cent of new stock was likely to be terraced, 55.7 per cent apartments and 40.7 per cent standalone homes.
Mr Gibbs said areas such as Te Atatu Peninsula, Henderson, Papatoetoe and Mangere earmarked for intensive housing were not economically viable for developers.
Deputy Mayor Penny Hulse said revised density rules meant the council now estimated 880,000 new homes were possible across the city, 183,000 of which were considered economically feasible for developers.
Urban Economics director Adam Thompson, whose feasibility model was used in the study, said proposals to ditch density controls in mixed housing areas could significantly boost the supply of terraced homes.
"It will create a situation for developers where it's very easy to find a site that is suitable for development."
Shape of the City
Auckland dwellings expected to be built over the next 30 years are likely to be:
55.7% per cent apartments
40.7% standalone homes
3.6% terraced housing
Source: Report to Auckland Council