KEY POINTS:
Political reporter Paula Oliver analyses the latest Herald-DigiPoll political survey
PARTY VOTE
Gender: National remains far more popular among males than Labour, but the contest is much closer when it comes to females. Among males, 52.5 per cent said they would vote National, while 35.4 per cent picked Labour.
Male support has favoured National for some time and it is the female vote that both major parties have acknowledged will be crucial.
In the latest survey, 47.2 per cent of females backed National, compared with 42.9 per cent for Labour. This gap has virtually halved since February's DigiPoll survey, which gave National over half the female vote with Labour 12 points behind.
But the figures in the latest survey are broadly in line with trends for several months before that February poll, which was strong overall for National.
Age: Labour tops National in just two out of seven age brackets - 18-24 and 70+. In between, support is stronger for National across the board, particularly in the 40-49 age group where 56.8 per cent said they would vote for National, while 31.4 per cent picked Labour. Sample sizes in age groups are not large so results should be read as indicative.
Labour has its nose just ahead by 44.3 per cent to National's 43 per cent in the 18-24 age group, and by a much larger 53.7 per cent to 40.8 per cent in the 70+ bracket.
Support for the Greens is disproportionately large in the 30-39 and 40-49 groups compared with its overall rating. The Maori Party registers its strongest readings in the 18-24 and 30-39 age groups, but its support tails off to below its overall poll rating from age 40 onward.
Region: National is far more popular in Auckland than the rest of New Zealand. In Auckland, 55.7 per cent of those polled said they would vote National, while 33.9 per cent said Labour. That compares with National's overall poll rating of 49.9 per cent and Labour's 39.3 per cent.
Interestingly, the Maori Party does better in Auckland than it does elsewhere, registering 4.9 per cent in the city compared with 3.1 per cent across the rest of the country. Outside Auckland, National is still in front of Labour but the gap is only 4.6 points.
PREFERRED PM
Helen Clark enjoys good support from female voters as preferred Prime Minister - in fact she gets more support than Labour does in the party vote stakes. Among females, Helen Clark registers 50.5 per cent, compared with John Key's 43.4 per cent. These figures are very similar to the February DigiPoll survey, and Helen Clark has regularly pulled in more than half of female voters in the poll.
Like his party, Mr Key does better among males. He outperforms Helen Clark by 48.5 per cent support to 40.9 per cent as preferred Prime Minister among males - a closing of the gap since February.
Winston Peters comes in third among both males and females, with little difference between the two.
Geographically, Mr Key is the preferred pick in Auckland to lead the country, while Helen Clark is ahead of her rival across the rest of New Zealand.
INFLUENCES ON VOTE
Tax cuts emerge as the top issue likely to influence both Labour and National voters, as the two major parties prepare to offer cuts this year. Tax cuts are also clearly important to people who said they would vote for any of the other smaller parties, including the Greens, New Zealand First, Act and the Maori Party.
Tax cuts are top of the list for both males and females, and are just as important across the rest of the country as they are in Auckland.
A debate over whether the economy is heading for a recession has pushed it to the forefront of people's minds, and it comes in as the second most important issue for Labour voters and National voters, and males as well as females.
In Auckland, the economy is a clear second behind tax cuts in voters' minds, but outside Auckland law and order and hospital waiting lists are closer to the economy as an issue.
Global warming is far and away the most important issue for the Greens' voters, and it is higher up the list in Auckland than elsewhere.
Sample sizes outside Labour and National are not large so smaller party analysis and age brackets should be read as indicative.
