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It's cold, snowy, wet or wild outside this weekend - but forecasters say this winter will be mild and warm.
Severe winter blasts have hit New Zealand over the past four days bringing road and airport closures due to snow and squalls across both islands. But the national climate centre Niwa and the MetService agree that this weekend will not be typical - we're in for a mild winter.
MetService says temperatures will be around 2C warmer than usual this winter in almost every part of the country, and Niwa scientist Dr Jim Salinger agrees temperatures will be up - "but we will have cold spells".
MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said the weather for June, July and August was being influenced by a trend towards La Nina, a weather pattern where cooler sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific ocean cause warmer sea surface temperatures around New Zealand.
"La Nina means means fewer southwesterly [winds] than normal, as far as our winters are concerned. And even though we have had a southwesterly wind raging [this weekend], which is sharp and memorable, we haven't had that many of them this winter."
Frosts will not be as harsh this winter says McDavitt.
"We've had some cracker frosts in the last week or so, though."
As for rain, both MetService and Niwa's national climate centre are predicting average rainfall in most places but it might be wetter in the north and east of the North Island.
Niwa said the only place that might be drier than usual was the east of the South Island.
While the Bay of Plenty is known for its sunshine, McDavitt says La Nina will bring some sharp nor-east winds to the region.
"They're going to get some nasty northeasters this winter," he says.
And, as usual, Auckland will be warmer, but also wetter, says Salinger.
