Winter makes a comeback

So no sooner had I written "good riddance to winter" in my last blog when winter decides to suddenly make a come back. Well... a pretty feeble come back if you ask me but the temperatures are about to take a dive that's for sure. So the set up is this - a large high in the Tasman is moving towards New Zealand. The right hand side of the anticyclone has southerlies...and so as the high approaches New Zealand those southerlies will spread over the country... coupled with this is a deep low in the Southern Ocean that blasted Invercargill back to the depths of winter yesterday. Thunderstorms, winds gusting to 100km/h and 3 degrees with heavy rain was the set up yesterday morning. So we'll see a southerly to south-easterly flow spreading over the country and those in the east will feel it the most.

Hastings and Napier were 24 degrees last week - by Friday they won't even make the teens with highs around 11 or 12. Wellington may be lucky to even make double digits as will Dunedin and Invercargill. In Auckland and Hamilton and other northern and western centres temperatures won't fall so far but it's still going to be cooler and the air will be drier (less humid). Highs will probably be in the low teens, maybe 15, but in the sun, in sheltered places, it'll still feel fairly hot.

As the high spreads a ridge over New Zealand (by the weekend) those cold winds should mostly ease - just remaining a little fresh around Gisborne and perhaps Auckland and Northland on Saturday. Cold air, big high, clear skies - you know what that means - frosts. Big frosts are likely in the South Island on Friday morning and Saturday morning with frosty conditions developing in sheltered North Island places over the weekend. Don't put your heaters away just yet. This isn't an aggressive winter snap - it's just a reminder that winter is only just starting to fade - little reminders are normal at this time of year and is the whole reason why some believe winter doesn't end until the spring equinox, around Sept 21/22.

The weekend is looking stunning this week...a very strong high, winds easing, skies clearing, mild days (in sheltered places) and cold nights again. To many this is perfect weather. It'll be very interesting to see just how low the daytime highs get.

By the way, check out our Daily Highs (http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/news/daily_highs) - we publish them everyday between 4:15 and 4:45pm - so you
don't have to hang around waiting for the TV weather two hours later. Get them first by bookmarking that link and checking it each afternoon.

Speaking of temperatures - it was no real surprise to read in the Herald on Tuesday that August was the warmest on record. August was full of warm west to north-west winds (which is why I declared an early start to spring). The winds came off Australia so were nice and warm and dry, produced little rain and really boosted daytime (and night time) temperatures New Zealand wide. Nothing to do with global warming, it was just one of this freaky months. I don't think September will produce anything like that - already we're seeing temperatures falling in to a slightly more 'normal' rhythm.

Finally - on a personal note and not weather related - I want to take this opportunity to thank a few special people who saved the life of my dog on Monday night. Sue, my incredible vet at Animalz in Te Atatu and the amazing team in Mt Albert at the Veterinary Specialist Group. My dog, Harry, was very sick (accidentally swallowed over a dozen pills that were placed well out of his way - or so I thought) and it was your quick thinking, skills and calmness on that horrible evening that means my special little guy is still around to lie next to me in my office as I type this blog. Thank you all so much for saving my very special family member.

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- Philip Duncan

 

Photo: Frosty mornings are set to make a comeback. Photo / Northern Advocate