Winners: Phil Goff - and the pollsters

The extent of Labour's win in the Mt Albert by-election last night was a perfect result from Phil Goff's point of view.

The majority of 9187 was an emphatic win for David Shearer. It vindicates Goff's support for Shearer's candidacy over list MP Phil Twyford. And it gives the Goff leadership greater legitimacy. This is his first proper victory.

He did not actually win the leadership when Labour was defeated last November after three terms in office. Helen Clark brokered the bloodless handover because there was no guarantee he would have won the ringing endorsement of a bruised caucus.

Clark texted her congratulations from the Congo last night to team Labour which partied rowdily at a warehouse in Kingsland.  (Shearer also managed not to be more successful than former Prime Minister Helen Clark who had a 10,351 last election. That would not do.)

The night not only belonged to Shearer and Goff; it belonged to the pollsters. Too often they are remembered when they are askew.

Last night it was not so much a case of bugger the pollsters as Bolger proclaimed when he was almost tipped out of office after just one term but Praise Be to the Pollsters. The One News and TV3 polls predicted a walloping by Labour and that's what happened.

David Shearer 63 per cent of the vote; Melissa Lee 17 per cent; the Green's Russel Norman 12 per cent and Act's John Boscawen 4 per cent.

National's Melissa Lee regained her composure sufficiently after an emotional speech last night to head down the road to offer her congratulations to Shearer and she was graciously received.

While she blundered under pressure, I doubt that former candidate Ravi Musuku would have been better. As Jonathan Coleman said on Q and A this morning, plenty of others under that sort of pressure would now be curled up on the floor.

While she has attracted plenty of criticism, there should also be questions about the management of the campaign and why a relatively inexperienced campaigner in Coleman was made campaign manager. Where was Murray McCully, Steven Joyce and even John Carter?

Also Key needs to have a very good reason for his absence from the National camp last night other than "a long-standing engagement".

A resounding win was always important for Labour.

The by-election has been a focal point for a party that was still in mourning about losing power and its leadership team. It boosted the morale of grassroots workers and allowed Goff to be a real leader.

Young Labour were there in force. Wellington Young Labour, for example, had about 18 people up here in the last few days. They have been coming up every weekend for the past six weeks.

Labour is naturally trying to over-egg the victory by saying they were neck and neck with National on the party vote at the start of the campaign.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. There was a growing party vote support for National in the electorate under MMP so there was a remote possibility that if the roles were reversed and Labour had run a truly awful campaign, and National a great one, that the result could have been closer.

But National is right. No Government – since at least the second world war – has taken a seat off an opposition party in a by-election.

Audrey Young

Photo: Labour Party leader Phil Goff (L) and newly-elected Mt Albert MP David Shearer (centre) celebrate victory with a supporter. Photo / Getty Images