KEY POINTS:
A stray ball bounces on to a road. In hot pursuit is a child, eyes fixed on the ball, oblivious to the traffic. It's a common scenario that scientists believe is linked to under-development of the brain's frontal lobe.
It's the slowest part of the brain to develop - taking up to 25 years to mature - and it's functions are particularly relevant to safe driving.
"They are referred to as the lifesaving functions," says Waikato University senior psychology lecturer Robert Isler. "Risk management, hazard detection, eye scanning, emotional regulation."
But, as Dr Isler - a specialist in human performance and road safety - found in a groundbreaking study of 72 young drivers concluded this year, these higher cognitive skills can be successfully trained through computer simulation and practical sessions.
Herein, he believes, lies an important tool in combating the high road fatality statistics of young drivers.
Current emphasis is on car handling skills rather than these "higher-level skills that we believe are more important than the driving itself".
Dr Isler, who is from Switzerland where the driving age is 18, supports increasing the minimum age but says it won't provide "a silver bullet". "You need something in addition and we feel [cognitive] training would be best.
"Our research shows if they are oblivious to the hazards, they take more risks. But once you point out all the hazards on the road to them, their attitude towards safer driving improves."
As if to underline his point, on Tuesday an unlicensed 15-year-old girl flipped her car in the small West Coast town of Runanga. Police said inexperience and speed were factors.
Dr Isler advocates requiring drivers to pass a test measuring such things as risk perception before they can graduate from a learner's licence to a restricted licence. It's at that point that statistics show young drivers are most lethal.
However, 15-year-old drivers are not usually the problem. The involvement of two in fatal accidents in one day is an aberration official data shows that from 2004-06 only six 15-year-old drivers were involved in fatals.
Nick Aldous, the Transport Ministry's head of Safety Management, hestitates to call it a blip but says "it's not business as usual".
An argument can be made that they are the safest of young drivers. There is a leap in fatalities for drivers aged 16-19 for the same period that is out of proportion to the increase in driver numbers. Sixteen-year-olds were involved in 46 fatal accidents, 17-year-olds in 57, and 19-year-olds in 59. An explanation lies in the fact that 80 per cent of drivers aged 15 are on learner licences which requires they drive only with a supervisor who has a full licence and minimum two years' experience. After six months, and upon passing a road test, they can graduate to a restricted licence which allows them to drive unsupervised up until 10pm but they cannot carry passengers.
The crash risk increases seven-fold after a driver graduates to a restricted licence, says Mr Aldous, then begins to drop after six months. "One of the key areas we are trying to address is how we reduce that risk at that point ... [and] one of the best ways is to try to ensure you have a better skill level before you drive solo."
Under consideration is increasing the supervised learner period to 12 months and making the qualifying test for restricted licences tougher by increasing required technical capabilities - including aspects of hazard awareness and providing incentives for learner drivers to do defensive driving courses (currently not available until after the high crash-risk period). The OECD recommends 120 hours of supervised practice before new drivers are permitted to drive alone, compared to an estimated 40 hours in New Zealand.
Mr Aldous says extending the mandatory learner period would also remove pressure on parents to let their children advance to restricted licences. But, he says, the graduated driver licensing system works, as shown by the marked decline in fatalities of 15-19-year-old drivers and passengers since 1987 when it was introduced. That year, 140 of that age group were killed, compared to 70 a decade later and 57 last year.
This marked decrease is despite the rise of so-called "boy racers" in high-performance cars, the inherent dangers in part offset by better safety features. Engine capacity doesn't loom large in statistics; 80 per cent of young-driver crashes involve vehicles of less than 2000cc. The ministry is exploring how to better compel young drivers to abide by the restrictions of their licences. Fines don't work for some. "There is a $400 penalty but survey data indicates that once accumulated fines reach about $1500 it ceases to be a deterrent because young people can't see how they are ever going to be able to afford to pay it," says Mr Aldous.
The ministry suspects demerit points leading to licence suspension would be more effective and that is likely to be among recommendations Transport Safety Minister Harry Duynhoven will take to Cabinet in the next few weeks.
Both drivers of last Saturday's fatal accidents appear to have been in breach of their licences by carrying passengers. In one accident, the driver and two friends died after her car hit a power pole; in the other, the young driver's car crossed the centre line on a corner and hit and killed Christchurch city councillor and paralympian Graham Condon, who was on a training ride on his hand-cycle.
