Whistle-happy referees the main fear

By John Drake

Referees. That's the word which dominates my thinking as the World Cup swings into action.

It is difficult to predict who will emerge as champions, although I rate New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, England and Wales as the genuine contenders.

But there is a serious chance that referees will prove to be the over-whelming force.

If you thought there was some pedantic refereeing during the Tri-Nations, I fear it will be even worse during this tournament.

And the penalties that may well decide the outcome will not just come from the tackle-ball rule either - it will be lineouts, scrums and so on.

I'm sure there will be a consistent interpretation of the rules and that it will be done very much in the Northern Hemisphere style - and, dare I say it, with the intention of giving the best possible chance to England.

And after the World Cup, everyone will sit down and work out what should happen with the rules plus other things like the video referee (we all saw from the NRL grand final just how vital video decisions are). But it is too late to free this tournament from the shackles of fuzzy rules and pedantic referees.

As for the changes to the All Blacks' No 1 lineup, I'm certain they are right.

Reuben Thorne will add a fair bit of grunt to the pack and as a converted lock, will give New Zealand another good lineout option. It is a concern that during the Tri-Nations, the only time the New Zealand forwards dominated was in one 20-minute spell against Australia. They may find it very tough against the packs from England and South Africa.

I don't think Thorne had a great Super 12 this year - he wasn't as dominant as in the past. But the selectors have obviously had their eye on him for a while and I believe the forwards need extra grunt.

And Jonah Lomu had to come in. You've got to have all your best strike weapons on the field.

I know people have cast doubts on Christian Cullen's ability to distribute the ball at centre, but I don't think Alama Ieremia showed great distribution ability.

Rugby has gone a bit the rugby league way and what you need are players who can beat opponents in one-on-one situations. It might only happen twice in a game, but when it does you should score.

Cullen can do that, whereas Ieremia crashes straight into tacklers.

Of course it has hit the point where the talking stops and the action begins, and we will all have a much better idea of the contenders' form after a couple of games.

The worry for the All Blacks will be if they don't perform well against Tonga and have to start contemplating changes - and it could be a disaster if they have to veer away from the No 1 side.

From what I saw of Tonga during the Pacific rim games, they are not a bad side and will have a good scrum, although their physique means they might struggle in the lineouts. The All Blacks should be looking to win by at least 30 points.

But as to making predictions about the All Blacks winning the cup - there are so many factors to consider and those referees and penalties are going to have such a big say. There is no way we can go there saying we are the dominant side.

Remember 1995. We had the best team, but didn't win. The World Cup is getting harder and harder to win.