Where our extra people come from

Most of the 50 new residents arriving daily in Auckland are babies, not overseas or local migrants.

State of the Auckland Region, the Auckland Regional Council's latest report, shows that about three-quarters of 2008's population growth was "natural increase", defined as births minus deaths.

About 41 babies were being born in the region daily, many to Maori and Pacific Islanders, the most fertile ethnic groups, the report said.

Of the approximately 20,000 people estimated to have arrived and settled in Auckland in 2008, about 15,000 were in the "natural increase" category, a graph in the 300-page reportshowed.

Only about 5000 people a year shifted to Auckland from foreign countries or moved from elsewhere in New Zealand.

"In the Auckland region, natural increase in the population is sustained by the substantial proportion of people of working and family formation age and by significant numbers of Pacific and Maori who tend to have relatively higher fertility rates than other groups," the report said.

Natural increase has become a steady contributor to Auckland's population growth, it said.

ARC communications staff said yesterday the report did not contain the 50 a day figure, but extrapolations had been made based on annual growth figures.

The report measured the differences between natural increase and migration and found that in the previous decade, both those factors contributed almost equally to the region's swelling population.

"Between 2001 and 2006, 55 per cent of the region's population increase resulted from net gains in migration (both internal and international) and just 45 per cent was due to natural increase," the report said.

An ARC research expert said yesterday the estimated increase in Auckland's population between 2007 and 2008 was 20,800 people.

About 16,041, or 77 per cent, came from natural increase, using the net figure of births minus deaths.

"That's a snapshot in time. When we look at the bigger picture, it appears there are times when net migration from other parts of New Zealand as well as overseas, contributes to a much larger extent," she said.

The report says that by 2035, Auckland could have two million people, but today only 10 per cent of the region's land is occupied.

The Herald yesterday reported on fears about a growing population's effect on the environment.

But economist Rodney Dickens said it was a myth that building new housing for Auckland's expanding population was eating up productive farmland.

He also criticised the concept of smart growth, under which authorities ring-fence cities to stop population growth in rural areas.

Instead, he said, expansion should be taking place on the outskirts of the city.

"Building state-of the-art new sewage systems in greenfield subdivisions is much less expensive than trying to repair old sewage systems," Mr Dickens said.

"Job creation in urban environments pays more than rural jobs, so let's stop all this nonsense talk about preserving rural land, especially because New Zealand has one of the lowest population densities in the world."

HOW WE LIVE

* 90 per cent of Auckland region is farmland.
* We are concentrated on just 10 per cent of land.
* People are less squeezed up in bigger houses.
* Calls for more land to be freed up.
* Region has low population density.