Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces his Cabinet reshuffle. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces his Cabinet reshuffle. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Opinion by Simon Wilson
Simon Wilson is an award-winning senior writer covering politics, the climate crisis, transport, housing, urban design and social issues. He joined the Herald in 2018.
Simeon Brown has become Minister of Health but has lost transport, energy and local government.
On Thursday, Luxon will deliver his “State of the Nation” address to a business lunch in Auckland.
OPINION
Simon Wilson is an award-winning senior writer covering politics, the climate crisis, transport, housing, urban design and social issues, with a focus on Auckland. He joined the Herald in 2018.
Bright-eyed and bushy-tailed after his Cabinet reshuffle on Sunday, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon willdeliver his annual “State of the Nation” address this Thursday. The forum: a sold-out business luncheon hosted by the Auckland Business Chamber.
So many good things he could talk about, amirite? Sporting glory! Auckland’s full of it right now: the splendour of SailGP, the fabulous footballers of Auckland FC, even Liam Lawson came to town.
Imagine the state of the nation if that happened. Fun times. At least, I assume it was tongue-in-cheek.
Speaking of, America got its climate-change denialist President back for a second term at 6am NZT today, even as the Los Angeles fires rage on, in the worst natural disaster in that country’s recorded history. And Trump’s inauguration was moved indoors because the chill factor was expected to be worse in Washington than at Scott Base in Antarctica.
It’s almost like Gaia’s trying to tell him something.
Protesters rally during the "People’s March on Washington" protest on Monday, ahead of the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. Photo / AFP
There’ve been many analyses of how Trump will impact the state of this nation, although most have focused on trade factors without mentioning climate change. How are there still people in the business world who seem to think the economy is somehow immune from the impact of a fast-warming planet?
State of the nation? Windy.
We’ve had a summer without a single weather disaster, so far, touch wood, unless you count the general under-performance of summer weather altogether. And there’s been good news on the road safety front, with deaths and serious injuries at record lows last year.
Transport commentator Clive Matthew-Wilson attributes this to the recession, but his theory works only if there was less traffic. That didn’t happen.
Lower speed limits and more police enforcement of the road rules, especially the rules about speeding and drink-/drug- driving, are much more likely to be the principal causes.
The abolition of those lower speed limits, by the way, was agreed by Cabinet last September but will not come into force until July 1. Simeon Brown has lost the transport portfolio in the Cabinet reshuffle, so the date will linger as his parting gift: July 1, official Hooning Day.
And yet, beaches and barbecues aside, we have a still-sluggish economy and a still-unpopular Prime Minister. These things may be related. State of the nation? Anxious.
Even on economic indicators alone, things are bad. A BusinessNZ-BNZ survey in December showed manufacturing has shrunk for the 22nd consecutive month. And despite all the Black Friday, Boxing Day and New Year sales, retail spending has been slow.
The latest Datacom Business Outlook Survey has even starker news: While just 13% of big business leaders were worried about economic uncertainty a year ago, that figure has soared to 77%.
The Government is making things worse by freezing its own spending on everything from affordable housing to new hospitals to local roads. And, chillingly, emigration is at a record high. There were 131,100 long-term or permanent departures in the 12 months to October 2024.
The focus of Luxon’s Cabinet shakeup is not economic, though. It’s the move by Brown into health.
Invaliding Shane Reti out of that job is no surprise, although ongoing sickness in the health sector is hardly his fault.
Man alone. Shane Reti has been dumped as Health Minister, after just one year in the job, but says he is 100% behind the new guy, Simeon Brown. Photo / Denise Piper
Reti didn’t underfund the sector in the last budget — the PM and Finance Minister Nicola Willis did that. Nor is it Reti who’s ensured that lower wages and worse conditions here compared with Australia are not a bug in our economy, but a feature.
Is Brown a winner in this? As well as his beloved transport, he’s has lost the energy and local government portfolios. It should be good news for all three sectors, because although Luxon reputedly admires him for getting things done, Simeon Brown has proved he is no Mr Fix-it.
Nor does he have much time for evidence-led solutions that will — to use one of Luxon’s favourite phrases — improve outcomes.
In energy, Brown sidelined attempts to prioritise renewables and failed to deal with the profiteering of the major power companies.
In transport, he announced mega-expensive new roads that will do little for congestion and for which there is no funding anyway, an inconvenient fact overlooked by his cheerleaders. And he went to war on road safety, in the apparent belief there are votes in it.
Brown doesn’t believe in moving the country towards prosperity based on a low-emissions economy, but he does like culture-war attacks on cycleways and speed bumps.
What will be the equivalent in health? Malingerers in hospital beds?
The thing about health is that it’s full of people who understand science. They will not have much time for the kind of populist bluster Brown specialises in.
State of the nation? In regard to health: Fearful, and I was already fearful.
New Health Minister Simeon Brown. Photo / Mark Mitchell
With the changes in transport and energy, another intriguing question arises: what will happen to climate action? Three other appointments in the Cabinet reshuffle will impact significantly on this.
Chris Bishop is the new Minister of Transport. He’s not an idealogue like Brown, in relation to either roads or cycling, and has long been a champion of commuter rail. But he’s defended Brown’s roads programme and it’s too early to know what he will bring to his new role.
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts adds energy to his duties. That’s an excellent thing — his climate predecessor, James Shaw, would probably have chopped off his right arm to get control of energy as well.
Watts has often declared his commitment to renewable energy and a low-emissions economy, but without having done anything much to show for it.
Now, in the energy role, he becomes one of the three ministers in charge of fast-track approvals. That gives him a much stronger platform on which to pursue those goals.
The third climate-related appointment is for Nicola Willis, who adds “economic growth” to her finance job.
The portfolio used to be called economic development, and there’s a subtle but important difference between growth and development. The latter allows the prospect of building a prosperous nation while not destroying the planet. But “growth”, unless you find ways to do it sustainably (the subject of a future column), means destroying the planet.
Bishop, Watts and Willis are not climate denialists, so it’s reasonable to assume they will rethink the Government’s view of the relationship between economic and climate goals.
There’s a simple test for this: local solar energy. That’s solar panels with batteries on homes, schools, supermarkets, factories.
The economics already make sense: batteries that in 2008 used to cost about $1500 for each unit of storage can now cost as little as $50, and it’s likely the price will be under $10 by 2030. Solar is not only cleaner, it’s now cheaper.
State of the nation? In this regard, I’d like to say: Hopeful.
But. Will Luxon use his speech on Thursday to spell out changes to policy, to explain why it is now possible, and essential, to build prosperity in a low-emissions economy?
Purpose and vision, he could say, and a refresh that puts the right people in the right jobs to get it done. That business crowd would love it.
Or will he just sing Simeon Brown’s praises and blather on about how they’re already doing everything right? No one will love that.
There is another question. Why is he making a “State of the Nation” address to a business audience at all, when in just over two weeks we’ll be celebrating our national day, with the focus on the Crown-owned national Treaty Grounds at Waitangi?
It’s not possible to speak credibly about the state of this nation without addressing the pain the Government has caused with the Treaty Principles Bill and a range of other attacks on Māori. And Waitangi is where he should do it.
The thing about the Treaty Grounds celebrations is that almost everyone brings their best self. Everyone makes “State of the Nation” speeches and the emotions are heartfelt, the aspirations noble, the commitments real.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon speaking at Waitangi Treaty House marae in 2024. Photo / Michael Cunningham
It’s a tragedy that Luxon doesn’t understand this. Last year he read largely the same speech he’d made the year before, when he was still in opposition. He did not grasp that as the head of a new Government there were different things he should say.
This year he has not grasped even that he needs to be there. He is hiding from the damage he has caused.
State of the Nation? No matter how good the SailGP, we’re in trouble.
