KEY POINTS:
Looking at the satellite map you'd be wondering if we were in the tropics - massive amounts of cloud are billowing up around New Zealand making a difficult job for forecasters who are working hard to make an accurate New Year's Eve forecast.
One of the difficulties of predicting weather for New Year's Eve is that the evening is only a few hours long - so we need to be far more specific than say a forecast for an entire day.
SO...what is happening on New Year's Eve?
Wind: Well as we mentioned last Friday there's a front approaching from the Tasman Sea. A very large low in the Southern Ocean is responsible for it and that low will tomorrow press against higher air pressure in the north. That's going to create a 'squeeze zone' over the country so strong winds are likely from about Canterbury to Taranaki. Wellington will be especially exposed. Southland and the West Coast may also be windy.
Rain: Rain will move in to western and southern areas...so places like Invercargill, Queenstown and the West Coast could be the wettest places. The good news for these areas is that rain should ease later in the day.
Showers: You've probably heard the talk of a "wet" New Year's Eve for the North Island. I think summing up the day's weather with one word isn't accurate. It's certainly not going to be a wet day for most people who are on holiday. Showers are in the forecast for places like Nelson, New Plymouth, Waikato and Auckland...but 70 per cent of the day is expected to be dry. So a few showers here and there as that front comes in later in the day. I don't think they'll be enough to ruin the day but they could be more of a nuisance for those having a bbq or enjoying events outdoors.
Hot & Dry: The reason I'm not so keen on saying New Year's Eve will be a wet one is because most of our popular party spots should be mainly dry. The Bay of Islands, the eastern Coromandel Peninsula, Mt Maunganui, Gisborne, Napier, Taupo, Marlborough Sounds, Christchurch - they are all looking sunny and hot. By evening the clouds will roll in but conditions should stay warm and dry and any shower that may fall will only be a spit or two.
Rain Tracker: Because the weather pattern is so unsettled and because showers will be patchy rather than widespread we'll fire up our exclusive Rain Tracker during Wednesday. First update will be before 8am, with updates again before 10am, Noon, 2pm and 5pm. This way we can have more certainty about just how many showers you'll get and how long they're likely to last. Click here to see the latest Rain Tracker update: (www.weatherwatch.co.nz )
Happy New Year!
Next Update: New Year's Day... What's the forecast going to be like for the first day of 2009?
- Philip Duncan
