There's a certain irony to the name of Wellington's most significant transport project in decades.
Let's Get Wellington Moving (LGWM) has proven to be anything but a project with pace.
The plan to solve the city's growing congestion problem was meant to be announced last August but has continually been pushed back.
Luckily, the capital is no stranger to big plans taking time or not happening at all, Transmission Gully, the failed Basin Reserve Flyover and a proposed Melling interchange being just a few examples of transport projects.
That narrative in the city sometimes feels like a record stuck on repeat, whether it's delays to a proposed development at Shelly Bay, the Gordon Wilson Flats saga or the axed Movie Museum.
A lot hinges on the LGWM announcement, which sources say will be made this week.
Without further investment in the city's transport system, it's estimated travel times by car and public transport could be up to 25 per cent longer by 2026 and the cost of congestion to the economy up as much as 50 per cent.
The final project could cost billions of dollars and take more than 10 years to construct.
The decision will shape the future of the city's transport.
What will the plan include?
More than 2000 people and 50 stakeholder groups took part in consultation for LGWM.
From that feedback, Scenario D, the most ambitious, was the most popular.
It included the duplication of both the Mt Victoria and The Terrace tunnels, a fourth southbound lane between Ngauranga and Aotea Quay, moving the Inner City Bypass underground and allowing for a mass transit corridor.
But it's understood doubling The Terrace Tunnel and moving the Inner City Bypass underground have either been put on the backburner or are off the table completely.
LGWM programme director Barry Mein has previously pointed out the final plan is unlikely to be one of the four scenarios used for consultation but a mixture of them.
Scenario D would take more than 10 years to build and could cost as much as $2.3 billion.
When the scenarios were released Transport Minister Phil Twyford said they "lack ambition".
"We have a Government that is committed to building up the role of public transport and investing in modern rapid transit in our cities to make them work better to reduce congestion and give people a much better alternative to being stuck in traffic," he said.
"We're also committed to enhancing the infrastructure in our cities for more walking and cycling."
Any further details on what will and won't be included in the plan have been scarce since August came and went.
When asked for an update on the plan last November, a spokesman for LGWM said the project's governance group was engaging with central Government on the draft recommended programme.
"The LGWM Governance Group is aiming to approve the recommended programme for release in the next few months, and the Transport Minister has indicated he expects that early in the new year."
When asked again for an update last month,a spokesman for LGWM said the governance group was continuing to engage with the Government.
"The minister's office has indicated that an announcement is likely within the next few months."
Battle for the Basin
The Basin Reserve will almost certainly be a sticking point for the LGWM project.
In 2014 a board of inquiry declined resource consent for the NZ Transport Agency's $90 million Basin Reserve Flyover.
A total of 215 submissions were received by the board, and evidence was heard from 69 witnesses. A further 74 submitters made representations during the hearing.
The NZTA then appealed that decision to the High Court, but was unsuccessful.
Considering this history, some were surprised to find the proposals for LGWM included bridges and tunnels to "separate conflicting transport movements, enabling much better public transport and future mass transit".
At the time the proposals were publicly released city councillor Iona Pannett described the plans as a recycled attempt to build a flyover at the Basin Reserve.
"I'm really disappointed that they haven't let go of the idea of a flyover, they're saying they can do it in a different way but essentially it is the same sort of thing that was rejected."
But LGWM governance group member councillor Chris Calvi-Freeman said there was no resemblance to the ill-fated flyover.
"Ways to separate through traffic at the Basin Reserve can include much shorter bridges, short subways or tunnels and there is no way this can be construed as a return to the proposal for that long flyover."
One thing is clear, the Basin's protector is ready to defend it.
Save The Basin Incorporated released a position statement in March before the LGWM announcement.
It said the board of inquiry's findings must be respected and both the Basin Reserve and its precinct must be preserved and protected.
Lobby groups gearing up
In the same statement, Save The Basin said it opposed the development of a second Mt Victoria tunnel because a new road would increase traffic which would in turn create noise, vibration and pollution.
In 2017 a coalition called Congestion Free Wellington was formed because members thought LGWM's suggested interventions were over-weighted towards state highway spending.
Fair Intelligent Transport is a group advocating for all-electric rapid mass transport.
"All-electric light rail, not more urban roads and road tunnels, will transform transport and make Wellington a more liveable city", the group's website says.
Other groups keeping an eye on LGWM include Talk Wellington and Cycle Action Network.
They're all awaiting a decision with much anticipation.
Some members have even made a point of reminding journalists of their contact details and availability every time a fresh story is published about the looming decision.
In an interview over the weekend mayor Justin Lester said there would always be questions surrounding major investments.
When asked whether he expected lobby groups to take aspects of LGWM to court, Lester said he didn't want to pre-empt it.
"But it's happened on most other large projects in the city and the lobbying's already started, on both ends of the spectrum."
Light rail or like rail?
LGWM consultation documents told Wellingtonians any transport plan for the city needed to include options for how mass transit could be developed in the future.
The best route for mass transit was identified as being from the railway station to Newtown and Kilbirnie/the airport via the Golden Mile and the Basin Reserve.
Three of the four scenarios proposed included a corridor for this.
The 2017 documents said the point at which demand would justify mass transit was about 10 years away.
But feedback on the proposals proved there was an appetite for more prompt action on mass transit.
It's likely a corridor for mass transit will be a part of the final proposal, but what type of transport will be running on that route is still up for debate.
While light rail may have been the initial buzzword, trackless trams have also been under consideration.
Cycling Action Network project manager Patrick Morgan has made a point of using the phrase "light rail or like rail?" in the lead-up to the LGWM decision.
The mass transit question is one example of the level of detail that's unlikely to be a part of this week's announcement.
Greater Wellington Regional Council chair Chris Laidlaw told his councillors at a meeting last week that work streams and business cases would take time.
This is after councillors voiced their frustrations at the already-lengthy wait.
Councillor Ian McKinnon said the LGWM process was constipated.
This was followed by a suggestion from councillor Barbara Donaldson a laxative might help things along.
Where to from here?
The announcement of the final LGWM plan doesn't mean there will be spades in the ground any time soon.
The plan needs to go to both the regional council and the Wellington City Council for ratification.
A letter from Laidlaw and Lester hints getting that endorsement from councillors won't necessarily be easy.
The letter was sent to the Transport Minister in February.
The council leaders wrote in support of the proposal and said Cabinet's decision would allow them to share it in full with their respective councils.
"This decision will be challenging for some councillors, as you would expect, but having now reached consensus on the proposal we believe we can now work with our councils towards any necessary decisions."
When asked about the letter, Lester said he was 100 per cent confident he could get the project across the line.
The councils also have to work out how to fund their share of the project.
Any hopes of a regional fuel tax were dashed in October when Jacinda Ardern ruled out new regional fuel taxes while she was Prime Minister.
The money needed for the project comes at a time when city council is shelling out for several earthquake-related projects.
They include the budget blowouts for strengthening the Town Hall and St James Theatre and the millions that will inevitably be sunk into the central library dilemma.
