KEY POINTS:
A Herald-DigiPoll survey of 400 people in Auckland City has National on 50.2 per cent support and Labour on 38.6 per cent. A wider survey two weeks ago put Labour 6.5 points behind National.
Despite the small sample, the results show Labour could have taken a public hit from the saga over Mr Benson-Pope, who resigned from Cabinet on Friday. The polling period also included the fourth interest rate rise since March after Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard increased the official cash rate to 8.25 per cent on Thursday.
What do you think of Labour's chances of being re-elected for a fourth term next year? Here is an earlier selection of Your Views:
Craig
I would like to think the chances were slim of Labour regaining power, but based on the brain dead, bribe-driven voting in past elections, I don't hold out much hope. I don't know what level of crisis this country needs to reach before the sheeple wake up.
Jennifer Goldsack
National has never worked as well for the majority of the people as Labour does.
The last few years there has been boom times seldom or never experienced under National. We have the lowest unemployment ever, good exports. There are issues that need to be sorted but these are being worked on. Social issues are being addressed - which has never happened under a National government. (I am not necessarily 100 per cent happy with all the social adjustments - but at least genuine attempts to improve NZ are being made).
Bruce
I think Labours chances of re-election are very good indeed even though the majority of New Zealanders are at a point where they want to see a change on the Treasury benches. Even if National continue to poll around 48 per cent, Labour with 33 per cent, The Greens on 6 per cent, NZ First on 5 per cent, The Maori on 5 per cent can still 'team up' again to continue the socialist program no one really wants (apart from Labour's hard-core 33 per cent and Jim Anderton). Ah, democracy. You've got to love it!
Kieran, Student (Auckland)
Labour has thousands of "invisible voters" who aren't interested in voting on a "digi-poll" and will come out in the election to ensure their benefit remains. Period. I'm crossing my fingers that the National supporters pull through, and that National can actually live up to their promises.
Nick
Two words for Labour: "Bye bye!"
Steve W
I think Labour's chances of being re-elected next year are extremely high. In my opinion the bribes they dished up to be elected in 2005 will be repeated with gusto next year. They worked, so another 3 bill, 4 bill - no problem for them. The other factor is the MMP factor. A vote for all the minor parties, ACT now included, is basically a vote for Labour. For those two reasons National will need to increase their popularity well above the current 50 per cent to have a look in next year.
David Brown
Helen Clark and her party look old, tired and haggard and I believe New Zealanders are just as tired of having to put up with them. Enough is enough. We need a change of government policies and a fresh way of looking at the problems of this country. After spending billions and billions of tax payers dollars on Maori night time golf courses and sex changes for teenage children I'd personally like to see if there are cheaper and better ways of doing things.
Rita (Wellington)
I am confident that Labour can win the next election. Too many people are thinking in terms of first-past-the-post politics. However as we are now under MMP, the Labour Party is capable of becoming the natural and long-term party to lead the government. Over the last eight years Helen Clark has shown us her skills of working with the smaller parties to form stable governments, and I look forward to this continuing in the future.
George
Maybe as we get closer to election time we might hear what National stands for. At this stage only one party is putting out what they see for NZs future. As always the polls seem to hit out at the ones doing the work and I suppose in a vacuum, that will always be the way of it. Looking forward to the debates and to see how National goes when they have to make known their policies.
Mo (Auckland)
Given that Labour have overtaxed us for the last 3 terms, and are currently running massive surpluses, then they have a very good chance of being able to buy their way back into office by dishing out the bribes before the next election. And people can speculate about what National may or may not do as much as they like, but one thing you can bet on is that the election bribes will be rolled out. The TAB would offer odds on it, except it's a damn near certainty.
Carole
I think a swing against Labour is emerging in Auckland but until more people focus on the big picture they will continue to let Labour bribe them with more taxpayers money. It is definitely time for a change.
pCb (Auckland)
If the Labour Party get in for another term it will be more due to the skill of their back room in spinning another deal with any minority who will take advantage of a major opportunity (and in all fairness who wouldn't). Will it finally need little Mickey to finally release some of his ill gotten surplus? Unfortunately while I don't trust National, NZ dealing with a 4th term of "labouritus" may end up a terminal basket case.
Andrew Gunn
Labour's fighting an uphill battle because whose going to elect a govt for the 4th time? Labour's "arrogance meter" is rising and "appeal meter" dropping! Plus they're acting like a final term govt. Last minute rush of ill-thought out bills; legislation that 'looks good' to crow about at the 2008 hustlings (100 per cent petrol tax to roads and transport), final tweaks to employee law, benefits (4 weeks holiday), and Kiwisaver contributions and cashbacks (again in 2008).
Sophia
If Labour get in again it won't be due to my vote. I don't think National are much better but I'm willing to vote Nats just to get rid of PC Helen and the Nana Brigade!
Maggie
Labour has let the voters down starting with the dishonesty of paintgate, the speeding car of the prime minister, corngate and more importantly "free" kindy that is now only partly "fee". It is time for a change.
Mike (Rotorua)
In the unlikely event that Labour return, would indicate the greater populace of this country agrees to the social engineering arbitrated by law to the degenerate behaviour evident in our society. The virus has wormed its way in to the inner core through these incrustations of extraneous matter acting for the crown.
RH
Off to Nambia or somewhere similar with Clarke and her socialist good for nothing cohorts. And you useless followers of the red-brigade, you can ship off as well. The right is coming back and we will enjoy a decade at least of integrity, openness, smaller govt, freedom, business friendliness and tax cuts. Bugger off Labour and good riddance. The only hope for this country is that National win.
Karl Marx
Go National 08. Time to kick start the neoliberal revolution! Cut all spending to health, education etc, privatise all state own assets, and let the market rule. Oh the utopia! If people can't successes in a user pays, look after number one society then there's always prison. No parole of course. Maybe we could bring back the death penalty? Any one for nuclear power or Islam bashing?
Dan
I do not think the Nats can hold the high moral ground on honesty after Brash, the Brethren and all the hollow men that tend to endorse National. The tricky bit for National will be when they try to reconcile English's conservatism with Key's "say anything to get voted in" mantra. It will be close but I pick Labour by seven seats. Despite the constant putdowns by the media, Clark is by far the best Prime Minister for a generation.
Sid
"The Prime Minister has today voiced her concern over the grave issue of child abuse" - NZ Herald story today. How long has Helen been PM, and has the situation with child abuse in NZ got better since she took over running the country? Is the welfare/nanny state nurturing caring families, or is it giving financial incentives to people to bludge and procreate? Face it Helen and Labour, your policies aren't making this country a better place to live.
Greg (Christchurch)
Labour are the lesser of two evils IMO. After reading The Hollow Men, I'm scared to think how much National will screw up NZ (again).
Ken Hix
Labours chance are nil. They can't manage an economy to save themselves. Govt spending is out of control. Taxes are far too high for the hard working middle New Zealander. Social welfare system is too heavily burdened.
Ra[Tok]
I hope they make it. National have proven they cannot be trusted, so better the devil you know! I became suspicious of John Key when he picked up the little Polynesian girl and took her to Waitangi! That type of typical Rich White Man attitude just grates with me. He denied it at the time but followed up this year by withdrawing his support for the Maori Party fore shore repeal bill! I hope Labour is shaken into being more honest about what's behind the bill, just as Bush & Co deny the conflict's around the world that they are involved is not about oil, Helen & Co are doing the same.Vote for the small parties like NZ first to keep them on their toes! (Notice I didn't say honest!)
Garry (Christchurch)
I am required to work with officials and ministers in the development of electrical safety standards. It is my view that they are more interested in spinning and confusing information than working to achieve safety. This lack of will and leadership will cause them to be voted out as PC and spin are slowly becoming unpopular.
John McCall
Labour is not concerned about the polls now as it is the poll next year that counts. By then, Labour will have put out numerous bribes to suck in the electorate. We will see some sort of tax cuts, or in true nanny state ideology, there will be all sorts of hand-outs to seduce people to vote Labour again. Even though interest rates will be at similar levels, inflation unchecked and possibly unemployment up.
Mr T
Helen Clarke is a bully. Enacting retrospective legislation, the foreshore, sanctions/bogus travel warnings regarding Fiji, making ministers fall on swords, she has helped to create, all indicate how much of a bully she really is. It's brutish but true.
Ian Morine
The political situation both in Auckland and nationwide at the moment is being fuelled by the media and National opposition, over several issues. They (both these sectors) chose David Benson-Pope as "easy pickings" several years ago and since then have used "bully" tactics against him, including the use of the word "pervert", which I have never heard before then, in NZ politics! I wonder what these bullies will be like to the average person in NZ, "if" they get real power - ever wondered that? I agree that this latest issue could have been handled much better, but as a victim of constant bullying when I was at school and the known effects of that, I really do sympathise with Benson-Pope now.
Site
Nothing to worry the Labour Party, I still support the Labour Party at this stage, even the performance of some of the MPs. Hope Labour to be re-elected on their 4th terms next year.
WJG (Auckland)
The saga over Benson-Pope and his apparent lack of honesty is nothing new in the current Labour ranks. One doesn't have to go too far back to remember our Prime Minister signing artwork that she never in fact painted. Has everyone forgotten this? I'm frustrated by the lies that Labour continue to put out, the '20 hours free childcare' that Steve Maharey still insists are free is another example where this government continues to mislead. I will be supporting National next election if anything but to bring some integrity and honesty back into our political landscape.
Ron, a concerned oldie (Matamata)
Although the present Prime Minister is a very skilful leader, she has become arrogent, no idea as to what is really happening to the ordinary people with all the rises in goods and services, brushes off suggestions that could be useful out of hand, if she hasn't thought of them, not good.
Steve (Auckland)
Unfortunately, I think Labour's chances of re-election aren't too bad. Once again they will dig in to their massive cash reserves and start throwing money at areas they should have fixed during their term. Healthcare and the 20 "free" hours of pre-school care being two that spring to mind. The question is: Can the NZ public be "bought" yet again? Time for a change.