KEY POINTS:
Wet - that's the word that sums today up in every part of the country. What was Tropical Cyclone Innis is now a Tasman Sea rainstorm with a strong link to the tropics. A narrow but potent stream of saturated air is being pulled down across New Zealand by this deepening low. In fact, by the end of today this storm should be more intense than it was when it was a category 1 cyclone near New Caledonia. Yesterday Innis scooted down the Tasman Sea at 40km/h but today will stall off the Fiordland Coast and deepen further. The 'river' of humid air coming down from the tropics means another hot stuffy night for many with heavy rain in western and north western regions of both islands.
We've set up a special link for this rainstorm with regular updates throughout Friday you'll find it here.
Of course feel free to post comments here with updates on conditions where you are - especially if you have a weather station. NZHerald.co.nz also wants your rain photos - so send them in to us here, whether they're flood photos or just you out and about in the wet stuff.
La Nina has definitely kicked into gear and we're seeing a more typical version of it than we did last year. An online poster at the Weather Watch Centre says he thinks this won't be the last cyclone we'll see this year...I don't know about that but I certainly agree that this isn't the last tropical storm we'll see this Summer or Autumn. The Coral Sea, western Pacific Ocean and north western Tasman Sea are all very warm right now and are creating many deep lows. We've seen terrible flooding in Fiji and Queensland and New Zealand is now starting to receive some of this heavy rain. Will we end up with big floods? It's hard to tell...but this wet weather so early in our 'dry' season is possibly a little concerning for some areas.
By the way, quite a few people have been asking me about the humidex calculator - you might find this link helpful.
Heavy rain will spread over the North Island today and then ease by Saturday morning. Because this low is going to hover around the South Island's west coast expect a number of days with rain, wind or both. Southland and Wellington will both experience the strongest winds, most likely on Sunday.
Eastern farms are also likely to get a good top up of rain, especially the South Island's east. Winds from the easterly quarter means at least 24 to 48 hours of rain there, while that warm highway of moisture from the tropics should be saturated enough to just make it over the Hawkes Bay and Gisborne ranges to bring at least some relief there...it may not be huge numbers but perhaps the start of a new weather pattern that could see a low coming down the eastern North Island at some stage over the next month or two.
The weekend sees an improvement over the North Island with westerly winds developing by Sunday and showers clearing for most northern places. Actually Saturday might be quite hot and sticky in a number of places as that humidity remains but the sun comes out.
The South Island, as I said earlier, should be a different story with wet or windy weather lingering. And for those who thought summer had ended in the South Island you can expect some warm nights over the next few days - certainly no 4 degree starts in the short term future.
So that's about it for now - a big soaker today, easing in the North tomorrow and in the South on Sunday...with winds rising in most places on Sunday as the back end of the low moves across the country - and taking with it that high humidity.
Enjoy some good DVDs tonight - and gardeners, get ready to watch your gardens explode into life.
Philip Duncan
