Two weeks to go and the election seems still to be as gripping as it became the day the Labour Party changed its leader. Suddenly a pivotal number of people began to decide nine years might be enough for this Government.
Since then, numbers feeling this way has risen to the point that Labour now heads National in the polls, though the margin remains close.
If the election was today, polls suggest, Labour would going into government with NZ First, which would have no real option. Too much is often made of the position of NZ First. If that party is left with the so-called balance of power on election night, its only real choice is to deal with the party that most voters clearly want to govern.
Winston Peters has never previously had to support a new government. His previous coalitions were with government entering a second term (National in 1996) or a third (Labour in 2005). This time he might have little choice but to support a change.
Of course it remains possible his party will not be in the calculation. Jacinda Ardern has said she will honour Labour's undertaking to talk first to the Greens. If those two parties together have a majority, that sounds like the coalition she would prefer. If they also need NZ First, the Greens might be cast out again.
