Weather Watch: Winter on the wane

Winter shadows. Photo/ Brett Phibbs

I loved my quote in the Herald this morning ""I would probably say the coldest part of winter has now been - there's a statement I might live to regret".  Well, a day after making that comment to the reporter I still stand by it … and in fact the more I think about it the more certain I am that, for those in Auckland especially, the coldest part of winter is now over.  There are some basic ways of working out the changes… for those who are at home all day you may have noticed that the house isn't so cold when you wake up.  That's mainly because northern New Zealand has been reaching up to 10 degrees warmer at night than it was 3 weeks ago. 
 
You might notice a drop in your power bill from last month.  My power bill was the highest it's ever been in June… mainly because we had a spate of frosts which, in Auckland, is rare.  Lately I haven't needed my heater and my fire has been able to warm the entire house.  Even with the fire burning I'm using less fire wood as there just isn't that 'bite' in the air.
 
Right now we are in the middle of winter… the very depths of it.  But for northern New Zealand we are definitely coming to the end of the 'worst' of it.  I write worst with quotation marks because some people love the cold winters.  Of course ski field operators want it to be cold for snow making…so again, it's hardly bad.  I guess I'm writing to the many people that write to me, or comment to me, about wanting winter to be over with and for Spring to hurry up and arrive.  From what I've noticed most people love each season fairly equally… there's certainly a bunch of you who love Summer the most but almost just as many have told me they love cold, crisp, winters, or the colours in Autumn, or the flowers and extra sunlight in spring.
 
I suppose it's fair to say that even if, overall, we love all the seasons equally, winter is probably the one we collectively wish would end the earliest.  Dark days, muddy lawns, dead gardens, rained on at lunch, lack of exercise, putting on weight… it can get old fast. 
 
So … am I right?  Has the coldest part been?  I'm going to say "definitely, yes" for Auckland.  While a few frosts are still likely along with cold snaps that could bring hail and biting cold winds, I think the fact the days are getting longer now will start to have an impact.  Daytime warming will be up…temperatures are perhaps no longer going to hover around 12 or 13 and may now hover around 14 and 15.  Overnight lows, instead of being near zero, will probably be in the late single digits.
 
For other regions – say Waikato – frosts are still highly likely.  But I'd be very surprised if we fell back to the -5s, -6s and -7s of June. 
 
In the South Island (and this also affects the lower and eastern side of the North Island) I can see more westerlies this week.  That means windier, warmer, drier, weather for the next week or so.   So has the South Island seen the coldest part of winter yet?  My answer would have to be "probably, but only just".  Winter still has a long way to go before easing in the South Island.  But maybe a change to more westerlies might mean less gloomy conditions in Christchurch and further north more northerlies for Wellington. 
 
It is possible that after an early start to winter this year, spring might get the same idea…I just wonder if Autumn will be a settled month, or a stormy one?