Weather Watch: Rain, ash to go away, bring us snow to play

Too much rain and ash and a lack of snow - that pretty much sums up weather conditions during June.

We've been in an unfortunate seven-day cycle that has timed most of the rain events during the weekends.

So how is July shaping up? In my view, it will be more "normal" than June, which was a wet, warm month for northern and western New Zealand, and a dry month for those in the east.

But rain didn't turn to snow in many places and, even though a late cold snap saved the day for some ski fields, we're still running low.

This month, we should see less big rain-makers and less warmth because of a southwest flow which looks likely to dominate the country for the first week, followed by a potential high in the Tasman Sea for the second week.

This will basically shut down the big lows that have been forming over the Tasman Sea and bringing the big rain. It also means eastern New Zealand could have a dry start.

Meanwhile, the ash clouds finally cleared the country last Monday but returned again over the South Island for Wednesday and Thursday. Despite the Civil Aviation Authority saying it was safe to fly under, Jetstar and Qantas again cancelled flights.

Jetstar chief executive David Hall said the safety of passengers, people and operations was Jetstar's "number one priority. We always put safety before schedule." But it's not just me who thinks that's bollocks.

Forsyth Barr aviation analyst Rob Mercer told Fairfax Media the high cost of fuel and the continuing effects of the global economic downturn meant most airlines were running at a loss in the second half of the financial year ending June 30. "The decisions not to fly are easier if you are running at a loss than they are if you are running at a profit," he said.

And let's look at what the authorities are saying. The CAA said it was safe to fly. The Darwin Ash Advisory said it had no idea why some airlines were grounding so many flights and the ash was now so fine it wasn't showing up properly on the ash detection maps.

But it's all good news for Air New Zealand. A poll at WeatherWatch.co.nz found 25 per cent of travellers were changing the airline they flew with as a result of the ash clouds. It's obvious who they're switching to.