Weather watch: Long weekend weather wobble

Queens Birthday weekend is almost upon us and the forecast, predictably, looks changeable.

As we head towards the last holiday weekend for four months (way too long if you ask me!) all eyes are on the computer models predicting our sixth low pressure system in just a month. The models aren't entirely sure where this system is going to track - and like any low coming from the north any slight 'wobble' in the long range maps can mean the difference between heavy rain or nothing at all. At this stage, it's likely to have an impact on northern regions on Sunday or early Monday. Fairly strong easterlies either on Sunday night or Monday morning in northern and northern eastern areas too, especially the eastern Waikato.

You can track our detailed Queens Birthday travel and regional forecasts here - updated twice daily.

Over the rest of New Zealand a high pressure system will kick off the weekend's travels (or rests, for those of you who aren't going away) with mostly settled and sunny weather right over New Zealand.

However with the high centred more in the Tasman Sea towards the end of the weekend, coupled with this low dropping down to the north east, the isobars may squish up a little but on Monday.

Nothing severe at this stage, but keep up to date with MetService warnings - there may be some issued for late Sunday or Monday from this event. I know - can't believe I'm saying that yet again myself.

I think it was Easter Weekend that Taranaki was my pick of the weekend...this holiday break it will be the West Coast with Nelson very close second Worst place weather-wise is likely to be Southland with strong, cold, winds and rain or showers - but if this low eventuates I'd say the Bay of Islands, Coromandel and Auckland will all share that second place.

But I have to say, overall, not a bad forecast really, considering we're in the first week of June.

And what an end to Autumn - Bob McDavitt from MetService was telling me that Oamaru had 190mm of rain in a week, the previous accumulation of 190mm took 8 months! So as you can see, conditions are extreme around New Zealand at the moment. But hey - it makes life fun right?