Weather Watch: July warms up but stays wet

A wet day in Auckland City as winter finally arrives. Photo / Dean Purcell

Well I don't know about you but I'm finding July a much warmer month than June.  Whether it technically is or isn't is irrelevant…it feels warmer and I've certainly cut back on using the heater or using as much firewood.  I think for Aucklanders the overnight lows have had a big jump from the frosty nights of June.  While I had a light frost the other morning July has so far been frost free with overnight lows several degrees warmer than in June.  The daytime highs have also been a little higher lately thanks to the northerly flow.  Of course I'm speaking for Auckland and Northland, it's been cold in other centres but definitely not as cold as June for many North Island areas.
 
The South Island has still been pretty cold though with -9 recorded the other day in McKenzie Country town of Omarama and Southland and Central Otago have still had pretty miserable daytime highs although there's been a slight jump in the highs more into the mid single digits than closer to zero.
 
So what's in store this weekend?  Well a low pressure system is expected to deepen Friday night north of New Zealand in the sub-tropics.  That means more warm weather for North Islanders under that northerly flow.  Rain may be heavy in Northland so  because of the recent flooding WeatherWatch.co.nz will be closely monitoring the situation – however no warnings or even watches are in place.   MetService has increased confidence that rain will, however, be heavy enough for rain warnings around Gisborne and East Cape. 
 
During Saturday that low will move quickly into the Pacific Ocean deepening rapidly as it does so.  That means a strong south or south west wind will spread over New Zealand.  Some eastern areas may receive gales.  
 
At the same time that this low passed northern New Zealand overnight Friday/Saturday morning a cold front will be moving in to Southland.  It's not especially nasty but some snow may fall to quite low levels.  Wind chills could be extreme for a time from Southland to Otago during Saturday.  That sou'wester may also howl through the area.
 
Heading in to next week and a large high should drift down from the north Tasman Sea.  This could bring a spell of mild, settled, perhaps even Spring-like weather to northern New Zealand early next week.  The long range models show the low moving north of New Zealand but may well affect much of the North Island.  South Islanders, according to these long models, look as though they'll be in a more unsettled flow between the high in the north and lows to the south. 
 
Check back on Monday…for those who hate winter we've now passed the half way mark and the days are graaaadually getting a little longer.  Spring is just 6 weeks away!