Weather watch: Hi low, here we go

Get your umbrellas ready. Photo / Richard Robinson

New Zealand is in for a drenching this week as a quick forming low develops in the eastern Tasman Sea. The low is going to start to cross the North Island towards the end of the week and will soak northern facing regions of both islands.

The low means more of the warm weather. The nation's highest temperatures for the past five days have been around the 17 and 18 degree mark - and that looks set to stay put for the rest of the working week as winds from the northerly quarter crank up, some time late Tuesday or during Wednesday.

The northern facing regions will be most exposed to the rain clouds moving in and piling up against the ranges to the south - which is why places like Nelson, Bay of Plenty, East Cape and Coromandel Peninsula should be prepared for possible flooding.

Northland, Auckland, Marlborough and Mt Taranaki should also be prepared for heavy rain - but hopefully not enough to cause any damage.

Towards the end of the week the low will weaken as it crosses the North Island and heads out into the open waters of the great Pacific Ocean. Behind it a colder, showery, south westerly will spread up the country - and we may see a few snow flakes on the ski fields too, which is good news.

The long range prediction for next week shows a large high moving in from Australia which may bring settled weather to many main centres for the entire working week, starting this weekend as that low departs.

It should see frosty conditions moving back up New Zealand but, as I've asked for several weeks now, where are the cold southerlies this winter? The big grunty ones that drag up Antarctic air across the country and produce major snowfalls? The hail storms, the gales? This winter is puttering along with very little oomph. As a storm chaser I'm disappointed...but I'm sure the farming back bone of this nation is more than happy with what Mother Nature has ended up feeding us this winter.

Of course winter is still with us - some say for five more weeks, others says for eight - either way, a decent winter storm is still highly possible. July is pretty much done and dusted... the focus now is on August and what surprises we'll see in that month.

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