Weather Watch: a big, slow, friendly low

Northland during the rain and winds that preceded a forecast storm. A lone walker on the beach at Waipu Cove. Photos / Janna Dixon

Unsettled weather looks likely to remain for the rest of the school holidays as a large low develops in the Tasman Sea – but it could mean a warmer few days on the way for the North Island and a mix of warmer and colder weather for the South Island.  
 
The low is set to bring rain and showers (but sunny spells too, so not a complete write off) to northern and western parts of New Zealand.  It's likely to cross the country around Friday then during the weekend it will deepen suddenly out over the Pacific - this means a cold snap is on the way for Southland and Otago in the weekend and a cold, strong, south west change for much of the South Island.
 
The low is predicted to be quite large but it's a big, slow, friendly giant at this stage and should slowly mooch across New Zealand without anything too extreme.  In fact it's not really going to bring anything aggressive to the country but of course any extra rain for Northland will be something we'll need to keep a close eye on.  Northland's certainly had a rough time for the past 3 Julys and in fact the weekend's storm was the third storm that managed to bring flooding to the region this year alone.   One positive is that they've all been fairly spaced apart allowing plenty of time for drying out.  MetService has some confidence of heavy rain around East Cape from this depression but nothing indicating anything to be concerned about for Northland.  However this low will be tapping in to warmer, wetter, air north of New Zealand so we should definitely keep an eye on it…heavy showers may cause some localised issues – check WeatherWatch.co.nz during Thursday for updates on where the heavy showers are.
 
But it's good news for eastern parts of the North Island this week – they're finally being cut some slack.  After weeks of cold southerlies, showers, rain and low temperatures the rest of this week looks warmer and drier.  Highs of around 15 or 16 and overnight lows close to double digits thanks to winds from the north west.  It won't be hot, but it's going to feel pretty pleasant compared to the past couple of months.
 
Is it just me or does this winter seem calmer than usual? – ignoring the weekend storm of course – but certainly here in Auckland it's been relatively calm.  I don't have the stats on me but the number of frosts we've had in Auckland shows that there has been little to no wind.  When we have had winds they've often come from the south or south east.  My bedroom faces west and it feels like months since I had rain on those windows…and I love rain on the windows!  Might just be me – but I'd be interested to know if you've found it 'wind-less' over the past few months.