Weather wars: Documents reveal why the Government agreed to Niwa acquiring MetService

MetService has expressed concern that competition and media commentary from Niwa during severe weather events may increase risks to public safety through conflicting advice. Photo / Mark Mitchell

• The Government agreed in principle in September for Niwa to acquire MetService.
• The move shakes up the long-running rivalry between the two forecasters, whose relationship has been called “tense”.
• Officials say it is important to have a single authoritative voice during severe weather events.

New documents confirm New Zealand’s weather forecasting system is fragmented, confusing and could put public safety at risk.

This is partly because the relationship between the country’s two Crown-owned weather forecasters has, at times, been both “tense and duplicative”.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) is a Crown Research Institute. MetService is a state-owned enterprise.

For many years, Governments have ignored rising concerns about Niwa’s self-approved intrusion into MetService’s forecasting patch, and the potential for public confusion during life-threatening weather events such as Cyclone Gabrielle.

Destruction near Walker Road, Waipawa, caused by Cyclone Gabrielle. Photo / Mark Mitchell

The previous Government finally announced a review of weather forecasting last year.

That review has now been completed — shaking up the long-running rivalry between MetService and Niwa.

Science, Innovation & Technology Minister Judith Collins announced in September the Government had agreed in principle for Niwa to acquire MetService.

A preliminary regulatory impact statement (Ris) and Cabinet paper relating to that decision have recently been proactively released.

“The current weather forecasting system is fragmented, with two separate and competing Crown-owned companies, leading to confusing public service weather forecasting messaging, inefficiencies and inconsistencies in service delivery, duplicate investments, and missed opportunities for technological developments”, Treasury officials said in the Ris.

A ‘tense’ relationship

Collaboration between the two entities has been challenging, officials said.

[This is] due to the mandates and requirements of each entity under their respective acts, competitive tensions between the two, and the application of competition law. This is resulting in a lack of collaborative input into research to improve the accuracy of weather predictions and warnings therefore limiting the effectiveness of the forecasts and potentially resulting in reduced socioeconomic benefits.”

The two have become increasingly competitive, such as when Niwa won the contract held by MetService to provide forecasting services to Fire and Emergency New Zealand in 2017.

Niwa then won the contract held by MetService to provide the Department of Conservation’s weather forecasting services in 2020.

Science, Innovation & Technology Minister Judith Collins has since announced the Government had agreed in principle for Niwa to acquire MetService. Photo / George Heard

There was duplication, such as the purchasing of weather stations, equipment and sensors in the same areas.

Forecasts were generated for the same time and locations and money was being spent on office space that could otherwise be combined.

Officials said it was difficult to put a dollar value on the costs of this duplication but they considered it “likely to be unnecessarily high”.

Public safety risk from conflicting narratives

There was a need for a “single authoritative voice” during severe weather events which was currently not the case, officials said.

This situation has been made more difficult because MetService was the nation’s official meteorological organisation and Niwa was the nation’s official hydrological organisation. Severe weather forecasting required a combination of both, officials said.

“MetService, in particular, has expressed concern that competition and media commentary from Niwa during severe weather events may increase risks to public safety through conflicting narratives on weather activity and impacts.”

Huge swells rolled into Owhiro Bay on Wellington's South coast causing extensive damage to roads and vehicles in 2020. Photo / Mark Mitchell

For example, there was a lack of coordination between the two forecasters, and differing narratives, that resulted in damage to property on Wellington’s south coast in 2020 and 2021.

“The underlying system allowing conflicting narratives remains, and we consider this could give rise to public safety risks.”

Officials also noted forecasting was increasingly important given climate change was expected to result in more extreme weather in New Zealand.

Change on the horizon

Five different options to overhaul the status quo were considered in detail, including creating an entirely new public weather service entity.

However, it was thought this option would involve significant structural change, disruption, and cost. It could also take a long time to bed in.

It was therefore recommended that Niwa acquire MetService.

Metservice would be retained as a brand and as the country’s “authorised meteorologist”.

Officials felt this would ensure unified public weather warnings.

Organisational change inherently involved risks such as cost, disruption and uncertainty for staff, the Cabinet paper said.

“While the initial acquisition will essentially be a ‘lift and shift’, strong governance will be important for overseeing the transition and ensuring important research and science capability is retained.”

It would be important to protect both the Niwa and MetService brands through the process, which could still take time as legislative change would be required.

“Failing to act on the recommendations will maintain the status quo, which the review has found increases risks to public safety, property, infrastructure and the economy from decisions not being informed by the latest information.”

Now that an in-principle decision has been made, the Government has asked Treasury officials and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment to work with MetService and Niwa to provide further details as soon as possible.

Georgina Campbell is a Wellington-based reporter who has a particular interest in local government, transport, and seismic issues. She joined the Herald in 2019 after working as a broadcast journalist.