Another bout of severe weather may bear down on New Zealand next week, with forecasters watching the Tasman Sea for a possible brewing storm.
Three forecasting agencies warned a tropical deluge could return about midweek after a short spell of fine weather this weekend.
The predictions come as Auckland remains in the grips of intermittent thunder, hailstorms and brief, intense rain today - after a frightful night of squally electrical storms about the city.
Aucklanders woke to a frigid morning on Thursday, with more hail pelting the city today after the first falls last night as a cold and unstable flow of air spread over the country.
Lots of shower cloud over the North Island. Meanwhile, the south of the South Island is doing a good job of keeping the remainder of the mainland cloud free, although some showers are lurking near the east coast https://t.co/rcECVupUMw ^PL pic.twitter.com/UDOdVH1Mp8
— MetService (@MetService) May 11, 2023
More than 12,000 lightning strikes were recorded around New Zealand between 8pm yesterday and 8am today, however, most were over the Tasman Sea, MetService meteorologist Peter Little said.
Snow fell as low as 300mm in southern parts of the country and on the Desert Rd.
MetService’s Little said the remainder of Thursday would be “pretty showery” but thunderstorms should start to ease as the day went on.
“Things are gradually starting to ease, which is good, and tomorrow things should clear up. Showers will become isolated and then clear,” Little said.
⛈️Short but sharp hailstorm crossing parts of #Auckland right now. Thunderstorms too. pic.twitter.com/qsRI6iTFrG
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) May 11, 2023
He said there could be heavy showers before dawn, pushed out by fresh southerly winds.
The temperature in Auckland has barely budged above 13C as of 2.30pm, and Little said the city was “one of the warmer parts of the country, to be honest”.
“The good news,” Little said, “is temperatures should start to rebound by the weekend. On Saturday and Sunday it should be back to 17C.”
Some of the highest temperatures have been recorded in Kaitāia, Napier and Gisborne which all reached about 16C. Wellington has peaked at 11C.
⚡️💨🥶#11AM: Current thunderstorms, windflow & temperatures.
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) May 10, 2023
If the weather this week was a 3 course meal, then today is the dessert❄️🍰
Stormy weather has peaked (or peaks this morning) - but still a few more squalls, thunderstorms & gusts to gale force before the day is over. pic.twitter.com/KjZBT0m2kw
“We have a lot of very cold temperatures even for this time of the year. In Auckland, 17C is heading back roundabout the average for May,” Little said.
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A forecaster for the National Insitute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said as the weather evolved the possibility a major storm could develop next week would “go up and up and up, but then it may go back down”.
WeatherWatch, MetService and Niwa were looking at weather prediction models which showed a low-pressure system possibly build about Wednesday.
1⃣Cold blast today
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) May 10, 2023
2⃣High pressure arrives Fri/Sat
3⃣Mid-next-week high pressure departs
4⃣Mild winds return
5⃣A low pressure zone may deepen in the Tasman Sea a week from today
6⃣Severe weather potential 7+ days from now
7⃣NOT LOCKED IN yet - but showing up in maps
8⃣ #Autumn pic.twitter.com/wDQyAqNZLS
Niwa forecaster Chris Brandolino said, “The picture right now is quite fuzzy, but it’s worth watching. There is likely going to be a [low-pressure system] coming from the east.
“It’s fair to say, if the low were to form next week, it will probably get very warm - at least for May standards.”
He said in the days until then, temperatures will remain low with frosts as far north of the country as Waikato.
“Frosts are likely [there], especially once the winds die down. If there’s no frost, it will certainly feel like there should be.”