Weather: Thunderstorms for Northland, ‘severe’ storms for weekend Rugby World Cup final in Auckland

Thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible in the top of the North Island today, while the rest of the country enjoys a relatively fine break until “severe” storms lash the country over the weekend.

MetService has issued a heavy rain watch for Northland, with downpours and electrical storms expected until 8pm on Tuesday.

The wet weather will reach Auckland and last throughout the week, with the heaviest rain forecast north of Orewa easing by this evening. Temperatures should remain about the low 20s, with a high of 24C forecast for a partly cloudy Thursday.

The Women’s Rugby World Cup final between the Black Ferns and England at Auckland’s Eden Park is likely to be played in mostly cloudy conditions with isolated showers clearing by kick-off.

Rain will also linger about Whangārei and Kaitaia over the week.

A heavy rain watch has also been issued for Gisborne north of Tolaga Bay. Rainfall amounts could meet MetService’s warning levels between 3am and 6pm Wednesday.

MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker said a high-pressure system was behind the relatively settled weather for most of the country.

Wet and thundery conditions in the north would be subdued by high-pressure on Wednesday before far harsher weather hits over the weekend, Bakker said.

“A low-pressure system approaching from the north briefly shoulders its way in on Tuesday, bringing rain to the upper North Island before sliding away to the east on Wednesday.”

Bakker said a ridge of high pressure would re-establish after Wednesday, before a new front approaches from the north.

“The front sweeps over Aotearoa from Friday, delivering a burst of potentially severe wind and rain for some this weekend.”

With dry weather expected for most places, Bakker cautioned the risk of fires from belated Guy Fawkes celebrations.

Wellington weather remains fine until turning on Friday, with temperatures likely to stay in the teens. Christchurch will also have settled weather until Saturday, while the wild conditions of the weekend would have less of an impact on Dunedin.

While high pressure is usually associated with clear skies and dry weather, if it hangs about too long wet conditions seen in the north this week were possible.

“Moisture evaporating from the ground and bodies of water can get trapped under a high if there’s no change of airmass, forming clouds and even triggering showers,” Bakker said.